canderson
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Everything posted by canderson
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I hear thunder
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Was coming to say - game uncanceled?
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Was always the fear as the shear didn’t match CAPE down this way. But I thought we could get a rain line as the front crossed but alas it’s dead
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Welp looks like no rain for me again. At least everything is already dead.
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It feels like a hair dryer out.
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We may be stuck between a N and S line.
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N to S line starting to come together.
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Winds now in the mid 30s. It's 98 at 2:30. Wonder if MDT has ever had a day a 96+ and 30+ mph winds. That has to be extremely rare.
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Going to go on a limb and say CTP today will set a record for most TOR warnings they've ever issued in one day.
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There are tornado warnings that stretch from the southern NY border to the Canadian border. Don’t see that - ever.
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The thunderstorm watch about to be posted for the LSV will come with this verbiage The greatest potential for supercells will be in south-central Pennsylvania into central Maryland/northern Virginia where effective shear will be 35-40 kts. Farther south, multicells will be the predominant mode. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard this afternoon. A low-end tornado threat will also be present for northern Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania, where low-level shear will be slightly greater nearer to the surface low.
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Max gust says 32. Sustained low 20s. E and some S winds are hidden from the spot (packed mostly for S/W which are predominant)
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That TOR watch comes all the way down through Dauphin County fwiw.
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95/75 at noon. That’s a 107 HI I believe. Strong south winds - sustained at 20 and gusting to 30.
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HRRR is a more broken line it seems, NAMs have a doozy of a line.
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91/78. Kill me
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The atmosphere is charged. I can't recall ever seeing CAPE and shear numbers around these parts ever this high.
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As expected, SPC has upgraded S and C NY state into Enhanced and moved the SLIGHT all the way down through central PA and the LSV into Maryland and down a bit into N VA. They don't have the enhanced along the northern tier which I am a bit surprised by, but with a 5 percent TOR hatch maybe it's semantics.
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80 was my low
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Never will read this strong of wording a day before storms from CTP. “Beyond the heat, our main focus is on a potential and rare tornado "Outbreak" possible Wed afternoon (most of the central and northern CWA) and late afternoon/early evening across the Susq Valley and points east. The combination of instability and shear parameters are as potent as any I`ve seen in the last decade. With model guidance supporting a fairly unstable environment by afternoon (CAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg), and eye popping shear parameters (0-1 KM EHI as high as 3-4 M2/S2 near and north of the I-80 corridor to the NY border) several HREF and 3km NAM members indicating UH values over 150 across the N Mtns, the Wed aftn storm environment is particularly supportive of upercells and possible tornadoes”
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Tomorrow will be the hottest day of the year. HI around 106.
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North of 80 tmrw probably sees several tornados. Long tracked ones along with huge super cells. Values for them are very very high. Cape is over 2000! That hardly ever happens in PA. I’d be shocked if they don’t put the northern tier and central mountains into enhanced category. SPC has TOR hatched at 5%. The LSV might even se a tornado. Though I doubt it. They’ll put us in the slight risk I’m sure tmrw late am.
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It’s default going forward
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Car says 101, house says 100, inside garage says 109
