canderson

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020 TORNADO WATCH 119 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC001-009-011-013-017-021-025-027-029-035-037-041-043-045-055- 057-061-067-071-075-077-079-081-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101- 107-109-111-113-119-133-132200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0119.200413T1530Z-200413T2200Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BERKS BLAIR BUCKS CAMBRIA CARBON CENTRE CHESTER CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE LYCOMING MIFFLIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SOMERSET SULLIVAN UNION YORK $$

Oddly enough the LSV and then SE in PA prob does better than DC and most of Maryland today. Odd, isn’t it?

Tornado watch likely coming soon, per SPC.

Probably won’t have a ton of impact if we clear fur an hour after this line moves through ahead if the front. 1-3 pm is the key time for the LSV.

Yup, lots o rain.

Right on time, winds starting o crank up. Never did get any storm to fire overnight.

The NAM makes no sense imo given this setup, esp DC south.

Sister in East Texas saw 2 water spouts on her late about 20 mins ago, wicked wind.

If you’re interested in tornados go to the SE forum, page 18, and check out the radar images. Textbook. I think I’ve posted this but my house growing up was hit by two. I have the best luck (this explains my wind ficus).

I’m not sure of a storm like that could survive the extreme upslope shear, there is a theory in Texas that long-track tornados can’t survive the hill county due to rapid elevation gains. Would love a met write up - or straight scientific report.

Had to look that one up. What a crazy setup THAT was. Truly once-in-a-lifetime stuff. I don’t think we see tornados tomorrow but I’m very concerned about straight-line winds mixing down above 70 mph.

If you see sun tomorrow for more than a few minutes before noon, pray if you’re religious.

Monroe got hammered.

Agreed. It’s actually the opposite of East Texas, give me sky high CAPE and you’re off to the races. Environmental factors mage a huge, huge difference.

We tend to almost always strike out with CAPE and shear here, so we’ll see what transpires.

Kinda a combo. Squall line is def an issue but the S and E areas can easily have storms fire ahead of it given parameters. This setup is a very common one in Texas and the SE - it’s pretty rare to get it up here.

CTP’s discussion is downplaying tomorrow a bit imo - parameters are in place and decent CAPE gets into York and Lancaster and the Allegheny ridgetops will see serious wind. As they are stating they don’t think Monday approaches Thursday’s wind event here and I see a significant chance a good chunk of this region sees gusts above 65 mph.

I think Mississippi looks more cringey - Jackson’s sounding are off the chart.

I think I’ve seen enough - if I were CTP I’d put York and Lancaster into a tor watch for tomorrow.

Hey @Blizzard of 93 you’re skipping over a serious severe weather threat Monday - one if the better setups I’ve seen here for spin ups and straight line wind damage. Going to be a lot of damage across PA methinks.

Pittsburgh, Mt. Holly and Sterling all have high wind watch advisories up. CTP is crickets currently

Those winds took out Hershey’s Kissing Tower. https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/hershey-parks-kissing-tower-damaged-by-winds-report.html#incart_push

I’ll say goodbye to the rest of my facia today, then.

My next house here is going to a bunker house so I don’t have to worry about wind ripping my damn roof off.