canderson

Seems overzealous but what do I know. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 240 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 PAZ036-056>059-063>066-180345- /O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 240 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow followed by heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches in higher elevations possible. Ice accumulations of one tenth to one quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Lower Susquehanna Valley. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Significant reductions in visibility are possible.

I guess the good news is Sunday we can go for a nice walk. Lesson here kids: NEVER bet against Eric Hurst.

That's a sleetstorm then a snowstorm then isn't it?

My grid forecast is for 1-2" snow tonight ending at 5 a.m. Then for this weekend is a clusterf: Saturday SATURDAY Snow, mainly after 1pm. High near 33. East wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Night SATURDAY NIGHT Freezing rain and sleet. Low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Sunday SUNDAY Snow and sleet likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

So it's going to rain all day Sunday, then be 4 f'n degrees Monday and Tuesday, then rain again Thursday and Friday. We're living the dream.

HOLY CRAP no no no dear god no. 1" zr is catastrophic.

The GFS is U-G-L-Y. Like, really terrible. The GFS is so far away from any other model it has to be tossed, right?. Maybe the shutdown really is impacting its data entry now. If it's right it's a coup like no other.

My wife's German. If the ICON is right I'll thank her for you all.

It's basically plain rain - no ice to jam anywhere. It's a creek flooding issue with 2.5" rain over 24 hours. In mid January. Kill me.

We get to play this game all again late next week BTW.

This weekend's event is basically VD2007 but probably less now/more sleet. I'd at this moment guess a thump of 2-4" before it turns to sleet/zr. Probably going to be a metric ton of power outages. Which is bad because Monday will be subzero for many.

GFS actually looks better, further south.

I will laugh my ass off if Sunday night MDT has <2” snow. Like, really, I’ll laugh for hours.

I fully expect the gfs to give the LSV nearly all plain rain. It’s what it does.

NAM has to be like 8” sleet. I can’t fathom that.

... or a flood warning.

Upcoming NAM run it’s biggest since 2016?

So storm cancel?

I'm going to need a few minutes alone with the NAM methinks.

The Euro is damn cold. Monday someone in the mountains here might barely crack 10.

All eyes on the King. If it comes closer to Ukie, I'll be ecstatic. That said it probably puts the system in Montreal lol.

I don't buy those GFS temps necessarily.

First of all, we all owe @daxx a huge amount of gratitude for his PBP. No drama, just pure data analysis. This thread is the best on this board for a reason. Now, I was as pessimist as anyone yesterday but if we can keep the south trend up today and Thursday night's event grows weaker and weaker ... then I'll get excited.

He called it Monday and it still stands right.

Lost the ICON. Not that I think it matters.