canderson

Damn good for you. So far a non event for Harrisburg - no accumulation since early this am. We will see how rates tonight get and hopefully reach the WSW criteria.

FWIW it’s 34 degrees in Harrisburg downtown right now. Snow is melting

Tomorrow looks more and more icey than snowy for us the LSV. Boooooooo. I am not sure if we can pull 5" out of this system with the rushing warmth that I didn't think would occur but it's legit apparently.

I wonder if flathead's coke binge brought down itsrainingtime.

That map shows a 1 p.m. precip start time. :looks outside: It's never stopped snowing.

About 1.5" overnight when I went and cleared the walk around 7:30. Still snowing. CTP dropped the Winter Storm Watch for Dauphin and we just have a WWA through the end of the event now.

This is where I’m at. Models struggle with thermal temps here in established cold patterns and when the warm air isn’t a blast furnace coming quickly. I buy sleet over zr for instance.

MDT imo sees 7” snow between tonight and Tuesday noon.

Ribs? Pfft. Not a prevalent barbecue choice in the great state. Brisket, sausage, brisket, brisket, sausage, turkey, brisket.

Where do you think we learn the Texas pledge of allegiance and about the battle of San Jacinto? And proper tackling technique.

In Texas they’d close school if there was a >30% chance of snow.

I think this covers every possible scenario lol URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 355 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 PAZ057-059-065-066-110700- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0002.190211T1700Z-190212T1700Z/ /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0012.190211T0000Z-190211T1200Z/ Dauphin-Lebanon-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, York, and Lancaster 355 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snow accumulations tonight of around 2 inches tonight. Heavy mixed precipitation possible from Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Dauphin, Lebanon, York and Lancaster Counties. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday. A brief break in snow will occur in the morning and early afternoon. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during both the even

I’m more surprised there isn’t a WWA for tonight.

Hey hey hey - that guy has never posted in our region appropriate sub so don’t bunch him with us! We are a great bunch but really having a rough winter like everyone else. I think Baltimore north has a decent shot at frozen issues Tuesday morning. Anyone south unfortunately - doesn’t look promising.

Honestly to my amateur eyes I don’t see zr being a significant issue for anyone outside the Laurels. ZR here is kinda hard to come by with entrenched cold - it rarely comes to fruition.

I agree. Kinda a WAA situation right? If it’s been cold we can do well with these setups, it’s the other way around we typically fail (warm to cold).

Oz NAM was a nice hit for most this subforum. HBG 4”-5” and a bit more to the West. Nearly all 2”+.

Between this comment and our Turnpike-living friend discussing his Friday “Fear and Loathing In Central PA” activities I’m officially confused.

Yeaaaaaa someone had a Friday night adventure it sounds like.

I really like CTP’s current discussion regarding Monday night/Tuesday. The main system of consequence will affect our region Monday night and Tuesday, in the form of a storm system tracking from the southern Plains northeastward through the Great Lakes region. A storm track of this nature well west of the Commonwealth should ultimately bring in enough warm air aloft for a transition from snow to a wintry mix. However, with a stubborn cold surface high sitting up across eastern Ontario and Quebec, surface-based cold air will be tough to dislodge over much of central PA east of the higher ridges. The strength of the northerly ageostrophic flow late Monday night into Tuesday, along with model sounding profiles, indicate that a prolonged period of sleet is possible, with some freezing rain as well. At this point, a general 1-4" of snow seems quite plausible Monday evening, followed by a coating of ice via sleet and freezing rain later Monday night and Tuesday. Certainly, a messy morning commute Tuesday seems likely, so stay tuned for more specific details as this event nears. It`s questionable how much of the region is able to rise above freezing Tuesday afternoon, with some of our far western and southern areas the most likely candidates to see a period of rain, before drier air aloft comes in.

The GFS shifted like 300 east miles between 18z and 0z. lol good job, good effort

They don’t handle snow well, it might get bad. The entire NW is under the gun for the next week- impressive totals coming.

Yea every model failed horrribly. In other news we all should fly to Seattle. They’re gonna get a blizzard.

The FV3 seems bipolar to me in general. Hope it’s on to something here.

It's ridiculous.