canderson

29/13 at capital city airport - my thermo died. Any recs for a new one? I’m in a city so can’t do a full Davis station due to buildings around me.

CTP disco the 50 Shades of Gray for weather nerds. SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... *Snow and icy mix will result in travel disruptions Wednesday into Wednesday night The CAD pattern will set the stage for significant snow and ice event for south-central PA on Wednesday. Strong low-level theta-e advection of rich GOMEX moisture and favorable mid to upper level dynamics will support a broad area of wintry precip overspreading the area Wednesday morning. Across the southern half of Pennsylvania, any light snow within an hour of the onset (between 11Z-14Z Wed) should transition to a 3-5 hour period of moderate to heavy snow with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, thanks to strong upper divergence and low-mid level FGEN. This area of high prob GRTN 1 inch per hour lingers the longest across the South-Central Mtns and Lower Susq Valley, before shifting east of our SE CWA during the mid to late afternoon hours. Somewhat similar to the Nov 15th, 2018 Winter Storm, this upcoming one features hefty amounts of moisture, and Max Wet bulb temps only creeping a deg or 2 C above zero in an approx 2 kft thick layer (up around 7-9 kft AGL) for the early and mid afternoon. Strong UVVEL may cool this slightly above freezing layer (or it may be only deep enough to make the snowflakes sticky) and delay the changeover to sleet during peak intensity. This creates a potential error in snow amounts of 2-3 inches on the low side should the changeover not occur until late afternoon across Central PA and the Susq Valley. The lower probability of a quicker changeover could trim current snow totals by an inch or so. Hires model data and NBM maxTw aloft indicate that snow will transition to an icy mix of sleet and freezing rain during the afternoon/evening before ending (possibly as freezing drizzle) late Wednesday night as the thicker mid/high seeder-feeder cloud deck peels off to the east.

Euro looks great. I’m sure Blizz will be here soon with maps but it’s wetter than 12z.

Good luck. I’d not do that drive tomorrow esp late afternoon.

When we say cave here we mean covered with snow. We aren’t talking about potholes the size of caves. Take that to the PennDOTfu.com forum.

State is closed tomorrow

I somehow missed that - I guess snow excitement got to me.

No, it was ground speed and not nautical speed so there is a mathematical difference (don't ask me to explain, I can't lol).

Also if you're curious about the jet stream above Pennsylvania, a Virgin Atlantic flight flying from LA to London hit 801 mph ground speed over the Commonwealth.

Look at radar, that moisture tho. Someone is going to get nailed. My guess - as always - is Cashtown jackpots. He is like a snow magnet.

Timing for this tomorrow is a nightmare scenario for schools/employers. Snow doesn't seem to get heavy in the HBG area until the mid morning and then ramp up and then to ice - so do you cancel with nothing on the ground and just cross fingers for nothing to go wrong?

I see @MillvilleWxis posting in the MA thread but ignoring us - his old friends. What do you predict up here?

Isn't there a shift change at 1 p.m.? My guess is they wait for the evening team to come in/analyze/hoist.

If I get 3" snow followed by hours of sleet I'll be happy as a clam.

To my credit, I was looking at the GFS and miscalculated the changeover due to its 3 hr panels. I thought we got cutoff prior to when the model did.

Hard to bet against the GFS to me, given it’s stability the past four days and seasonal record.

Looked like it was flipping before that to me but my eyes suck.

GFS stays the course, nothing much above the MD/PA border at all - MDT might not see 1” snow from it even.

What’s good about the NAM is it’s faster - if we can get snow before daybreak it’ll really help. We do have to worry about solar warming nowif rates aren’t heavy.

Appears it actually get more snow to NYC than DC? Wow.

NAM to me looks like a real nice thump for basically all of us. Cuts off snow to the south but north of the border unless I’m misreading looks solid.

NAM vs GFS/Euro blend. Who ya got?!

Here is CTP’s current forecast

This would send the entire MA subforum off the Key bridge.

Euro looks to be a 3-6” storm for basically the entire subforum. Gets heavier the more W/SWyou go. MDT around 4” or so I’d guess. Laurels and MAG highest.