canderson

I’m still at 19. High was 22. DP is -4 though.

I can’t trust the euro for temps. It’s been pretty bad with them for more than a year and it’s notorious for not being great with thermal temps. iBut I hope it scores a coup!

My grid forecast is incredibly detailed regarding temps. Sunday Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 28. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday Night Snow before 10pm, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 10pm and midnight, then rain after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 38 by 4am. Northeast wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. M.L.King Day A chance of rain and snow before 3pm, then a slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Breezy, with a south wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

@MAG5035 has said he doesn’t expect those gusts to mix down and CTP seems to agree. I don’t understand the dynamics of why not myself. CTP is peaking to mid 40s

Wouldn’t that just be a difference in pretreating? All around here they dumped all the solvent and cinders and roads were never icy.

Meh no one can be criticized or mocked for busting on this system (not saying anyone here does that just in general). I’ll be absolutely shocked if I get 4” snow out of this. Warm air nearly universally gets here quicker then forecast. But if the thump is heavy enough it very well might be 4-5”. Anything over that is lottery ticket stuff l.

Rare to see such a discrepancy.

You almost have to toss the NAM run due to the crazy duel lows bouncing around. Plus it it clearly took all the meth in Georgia.

CTP says 10. It’ll move S to N. It all is about the thump. Winds have backed way off for the LSV. It’ll be gusty but Mag was totally correct per usual. Gusts in the mid 30s seems like the feel. Hell we had that all afternoon yesterday.

It is GD cold out. 11. CTP says the LSV flips to rain before midnight. You just have to hope the thump is heavy. Great discussion this morning from them: Moisture will surge northward behind robust isentropic lift and likely produce a period of moderate snow with potential for an embedded west-east oriented band of heavy heavy snow (1 inch/hr rates possible) moving from south to north early Sunday night (00-06Z Mon). This band will slow down and pivot to become SW-NE oriented over Warren/McKean Counties and points northeast from there, with potential for 1-2 inch/hr rates continuing over Warren and McKean Counties from 06z into the predawn hours. South and east of the I-80/I-99 corridor, thermal profiles are expected to warm above freezing first in the 750-850 hPa layer and then also at the sfc across the lower Susquehanna Valley. Snow will change to sleet and freezing rain across the south starting around 10pm and the wintry mix is expected to approach I-80 by around midnight. Sfc temps will likely warm above freezing just before midnight across the Lower Susq, bringing a change to plain rain. Above freezing sfc temps will then push farther north along the Susquehanna valley toward Williamsport. In addition to the warm advection, a dry slot will bring a ribbon of decreased RH in midlevels for much of our central and eastern zones, leading to decreased SLRs first and then potentially the loss of cloud ice, resulting in a wider area of light freezing rain / drizzle that could extend through much of the CWA with the exception of the far northwest, where the pivoting snow band will continue. Freezing rain may result in a glaze of ice, but will generally be low impact due to snow already on the ground and then temps warming above freezing in some spots.

I hope since our snow has gone so far west the wind has too.

I’m no scientist but I think weather stations work outdoors better than indoors.

I don’t know much about weather but one I do know: if you are SE of the Appalachian trail in the LSV insurgent warm air NEVER loses. Combined with the trend and it’s pretty dire for snow lovers. If you’re in extreme SE Lanco you prob see no accumulation.

Hey be fair - all our bridges are close to failing too.

2-45” is lol - the boobs are a nice touch to

If I get 4” snow I’ll be absolutely shocked. And here goes DT thinking we get 10”+. He must have had a lot of lying girlfriends.

CTP has it flipping 3-4 am. Rates will be good until I’d guess an hour or two before. They seem to be saying minimal frozen rain.

You think MDT sees more plain rain than zr? CTP seems to now.

Wait we taking about Iowa State again? Hell yea let’s do this.

Yea CTP has plain rain after 3 am Monday for MDT. Even if I get 2” it’ll be mostly be gone by sunrise. Fun storm!

Punt. It’s a windstorm atthis post, not a snowstorm.

CTP cut my grid forecast from 3-7” to 1-3”.

Wasn't there a storm recently that was to feature heavy sleet that the Euro was showing as snow? 2019 maybe?

I spit out tea when I saw this image.

CTP hinting at a much lower impact for the LSV.