canderson

This was quite underwhelming - a 8 min burst and that was it despite green still overhead

Mod show, everything caved already

Green overhead but no snow falling here

The state closed physical offices as did most places and all schools - not much traffic today

Fair enough - I've not looked closely at the thermals. I just always expect (and know from growing up there) a warm nose seems to always take over Tyler to Longview.

Very light snow has started back up

We just ran out to do errands in hopes you’re right later. Sun is out and it’s melting fast. Roads and parking lots are very good.

DFW looks prime for a really nice snow - one larger than most have seen in a good while. ZR will be an issue from Canton on down I think. Per usual in ET ...

I’m not banking on much more than maybe .25-.5”

Just cleaned up. About 1.4” of super fluffy snow.

Dallas looks to get a potential record snowfall Thursday. Someone around the metroplex might see a freaking foot of snow. Good thing the Cotton Bowl is Friday and not Thursday.

It's called meteorology, not modelology, for a reason. Models are a tool for guidance, not to cherry pick and use verbatim. It's why I suck at understanding some storm dynamics.

It's super bright outside - Looks to be about 1.25". I'll go out at lunch and shovel since it seems to be about over for accumulation.

Are they drinking cyanide in the MA thread yet?

Think my goal for 3” isn’t going to make it. The heaviest rates are done here it appears and the jets flying east. I also see the MA hurricane the GFS had this weekend disappeared lol

Loos to be just under 1” so far. It’s gorgeous out.

.5”, 2”, 4”, 6”, 10” who the fuck cares. Let’s all enjoy snow Monday.

All schools around are closed. As our our agency offices (working remotely)

Will be blowing snow Monday night through Wednesday. 30+ mph winds - again.

My grid is 1-3 is what I meant. The 4” line they have is N dauphin Co

The NWS forecast is 1-3 for us.

If I sneak 3” from this event I’ll be ecstatic.

31/8 here. Dry air is gonna be an issue.

New CTP disco. I’ve never heard if the “classic Colorado low” hah SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A classic Colorado low storm type will bring a swath of moderate to heavy snow across the Middle Atlantic late this evening into the day on Monday. Snow arrives late this evening across the southwest and overspreads east and north early Monday into Monday afternoon. Snow ends from west to east by Tuesday evening, so it will be a quick-hitting (less than 24 hour) storm. Travel impacts are likely for the Monday morning and Monday evening commutes, with the most significant impacts favored along and south of the PA Turnpike. Still quite a bit of uncertainty with 18 hours or less until first flakes. The ECMWF and Regional Canadian models are on the lower end of the snowfall total spectrum. Part of the reason for this might be that they both develop a stronger midlevel low pressure system over northern New England late Monday from a shortwave trough originating east of Hudson Bay at 00z Sunday. This could act as a kicker to bring in drier air more quickly and shorten the window for moisture advection early Monday before the Mid Atl coastal system gets nudged offshore. This shortwave trough is outside the domain of the hires models (HRRR and 3km NAM) and will remain so until the 00z Monday runs. Given that the HRRR and 3km NAM together make up about 1/3 of the NBM weighting in this time period, IF this Hudson Bay feature is indeed responsible for the lower snow totals in the ECMWF and Canadian models, it`s certainly possible that we see a shift south in snowfall totals over the next 24 hours. That said, the HRRR does represent the worst case scenario, with warning criteria (6+ inches) across much of central PA from I-80 southward, which can not completely be ruled out at this point. Regardless, the isentropic ascent and favorable upper jet dynamics do look to be over central PA between midnight Sunday night and at least early morning on Monday. The main period of snow will start over the Laurels right around midnight Sun night, and spread NE through sunrise, struggling to get too far past I-80 as it encounters drier low-mid levels. By the afternoon, the precip may be tapering off over the I-80 counties, and by sunset, many models have little or nothing falling over the bulk of the CWA. The places that we continue higher PoPs Mon night are the far NW where lake effect- favorable flow returns and in the SW where the snow may not end for another 2 days thanks to another shortwave trough coming down Tue night - Wed. No worries for p-type (all snow) even though the precip will be falling during the daylight hours on Mon. Profiles show no warm nose whatsoever, even along the MD border. SLRs will generally range from 11:1 to 14:1. 1"+ per hour snowfall rates are possible in the Laurel Highlands and extreme southern PA on Monday morning. The most likely snow totals at this time range from a coating to 2 inches along the I-80 corridor, little if anything to the north, about 3-6 inches in the Lower Susq, and 4-8 inches in the Laurels. Have issued Winter Storm Warnings for the southern stripe of counties over to Adams and Winter Weather Advisories for the rest of the Lower Susquehanna Valley along with Huntingdon, Blair, and Cambria County. The 4" snowfall contour currently runs along 22 in Cambria County and then extends east southeast through southern Cumberland County, York city and just south of Lancaster. We`ll be monitoring for shifts in the track of this storm along with any suppression from the aforementioned midlevel low over New England. Think we are in pretty good shape if the suppressed solution verifies, but a northern shift would likely require upgrades and/or expansion of products farther north.

Oh we get those still! I’ll never forget the day the state closed and it was a 45 degree sunny day.