canderson

CTP’s 11:30 am discussion throws out possible 90 mph winds .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Skies clearing out quickly across the Susq Valley late this morning with full sunshine across the western two-thirds of PA. A high probability for a significant high wind and/or enhanced convective wind event exist for the early to mid afternoon hours across Central and Western parts of the CWA, and late this afternoon/very early this evening over the Susquehanna Valley and points east. The rare combination (in this part of the of the country) from wind and increasing buoyancy/large scale lift from initially full sunshine and an approaching vigorous mid/upper level trough will support a line of severe TSRA racing east at an incredible 70 to 75 mph (now seen across Central OH and noted by highly elongated HRRR 1 hour precip cells within a QLCS type of structure). Inverted-V soundings beneath the high-based CB will combine with 0-3 km bulk shear of 50-70KT to bring localized areas of enhanced wind damage where the stronger mid level winds are mixed down through precip cores/accompanying mini bow signatures. Localized 80KT westerly winds are possible in the stronger precip cores

No lie. I won’t be surprised to see a tornado out in NJ this evening either. Sidenote but next Tuesday still looks like a mirror image of yesterday for the mid-south, Midwest and Ohio valley.

All of western PA blue boxed for 30% severe with straightline winds exceeding 50 knots. It was going to weaken as it moved east (before restrengthening near the NJ line) but the NAM has it riding all of PA as a powerful system without any weakening.

Mind posting?

Soaking rain here now. Edit this is heavy rain now

Late this afternoon and overnight is going to really suck. There was also more than 50 tornadoes yesterday.

What does a 90 mph storm with embedded tornadoes due to Sears Tower and gun violence? Tune in at 11 to find out!

I don’t buy it but severe can do weird things. Except today in the mid south and OV and around Chicago … it’s as bad as predicted. And lots and lots of big cities down the line with the storms trucking that way. Sorry for all my severe wx posts from outside the region .. first stuff I’ve had to track since December.

I have a joke about Jesus and egg hunts and Mary but I’ll reframe.

I just had a chance to look - the NAM damn near takes supercells with spinny tingles through DC proper and is rough for east of 95. Different, indeed.

15 current active tornado warnings

That actually follows SPC’s map for marginal

Little Rock looks like it's about get hit again. Wow. Just warned.

CTP went with a wind advisory, not warning, for everyone not already in the warning. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 322 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-027-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-011200- /O.NEW.KCTP.WI.Y.0008.230401T1200Z-230402T0600Z/ Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Mifflin-Juniata-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming- Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin- Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, Coudersport, St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 322 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 8 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Huge tornado ripping through Little Rock while storms in Illinois get warned too as one is on the ground nearing Peoria. This day I think is going to be remembered for years. Chicago added to TOR watch.

This Little Rock tornado is going to get really close to the NWS radar.

Adair has an amazing view of a TOR on the ground moving into Little Rock.

Those storms near Mesquite exploded - and that's not anywhere close to the atmosphere that's primed for supercells. Yikes.

Issuing in n the afternoon disco. They’ve been pretty late with those the past few weeks imo - wonder if they’re understaffed currently.

Nope, just enhanced. A slight shift in the risk - notably east as you go south too.

Me too - not sure when it was added but it’s very helpful.

Two areas of high risk today issued by SPC - mid-south and the Quad Cities region. That’s pretty rare.

Nope, didn't come across that way - we're good!

It'd help if I'd read. I've just been looking at model outputs for the midwest storms today. That mod risk has like 15 million people in - Chicago included.

Is it just my dumb eyes or is tomorrow playing out a big more like the big winds are fairly confined just in front and behind the line and otherwise nothing too outrageous? Instead of it blowing 40+ for 12+ hours? FWIW a single 55 mpg wind gust will absolutely do damage to siding, shingles, etc. on homes.