canderson

Just remembered we have no radar so tomorrow afternoon is going to be rough to know just how severe our storms will be.

SPC all in on severe wind threat tomorrow. 45% (for 65+ knot winds( in southern tier, 30% for most everyone else. Have to iirc go back to June 2013 for the last time we saw these high chances of catastrophic winds.

Atmosphere will be so primed Sun won’t even mater really. A major MCS will set up - just a question of how far north.

I’d go toward Hagerstown but yea York isn’t a bad spot to base.

Shear and CAPE #s tomorrow are very good. Might not even need prolonged afternoon sun to fire supercells.

Day 2 SPC map has all off is us slight and the southwest area in enhanced

I’m DC and it’s rocking a 73% humidity so even at 85 my sweat is sweating.

Sterling has a great write up for Monday. CTP has nada. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday continues to be shaping up to be a potential impactful weather day with increasing confidence for severe thunderstorms in our forecast area. A strong mid-level trough will eject from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley by Monday. The trough is expected to strengthen and become neutral to negatively tilted during the day on Monday. In response, surface low pressure will develop over Southern Michigan and track into Southern Ontario during the day. Models differ on the idea of a prefrontal shortwave ahead of the trough, which may lead to early convection on Monday out ahead of the main trough. This has led to uncertainty regarding the amount of destabilization. Out ahead of the system, the air mass is expected to become very moist as a result of strengthening southerly winds. Most of the guidance shows precipitable water values near or exceeding 2” east of the Blue Ridge with values over 1.75 west of the Blue Ridge. This increasing moisture advection may lead to low-level clouds and precipitation which may also hinder destabilization during the day, resulting in further uncertainty. Despite the uncertainty, with the trough becoming negatively tilted, mid-level flow is expected to increase across the area with most guidance showing bulk shear values from 30-40 knots. East of the Blue Ridge, there is a stronger signal for increased low-level flow, with soundings showing 0-3 km shear on the order of 20-30 knots which bears watching for potential low-level rotation within some storms. Given the strong forcing and the 30-40 Knots of bulk shear, any sunshine in the afternoon may provide ample instability on the order of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE to fuel severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and even a few isolated tornadoes possible. We will continue to monitor this system as it approaches and uncertainty decreases.

Amen

Glad someone is. A major threat - extremely rare for august. I still think extensive extreme wind is the biggest threat.

If a tornado happens where you have no radar coverage, is it even a tornado?

CTP not even mentioning the threat of severe weather in its discussion for Monday is crazy imo

And I’m in Lemoyne now and it didn’t even rain here. Sharp cutoff. Linglestown got nailed.

And only .04” rain.

Had pea sized hail

It is really dark to the northwest

It’ll be a timing issue for actual storms but wind seems like the biggest threat

Major wind event threat materializing for Monday I think.

It’s damn windy

Update: It is no longer dark. The sun is shining - well as shining as it can get in this heavy smoke haze we got going on.

It’s awfully dark out. And 82 at 1 pm.

It's pretty dang smokey out today. Hurry up winter.

Happy hour on the roof and it’s so nice pit I drank 6 beers. Happpppppy August - my birthday month!

56 was my low. Bottle up and sell it.

Soooo the Phoenix Split?