canderson

Marginal snow in the city

MDT so far has had had a coupe 50+ gusts in the last 20 mins. It’s windy af

If we hadn’t had that morning junk this would have probably been bad stuff

It is sleeting now - should say mixing in with this heavy precip

Dow to 36. It was 64 at 7.

It’s officially windy. 53 mph

The Sterling radar is picking up the line better down in Lancaster Rand York counties

The line is packing a punch south intoVA and S MD. I had a gust of 42 mph - so a normal Monday here.

Heavy rain has hit

Temps dropped 16 degrees in 14 minutes lol

Leading edge is here and the winds are howling a bit but nothing else’s than earlier - mid 30s

Has the lack of vertical instability on the storms been what caused nothing to bring down the shear winds? We had not much cape but that’s not a need when interacting with shear levels so curious why everything has been muted so much.

Did it push down any wind?

Finally posted DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe t-storm risk confined to southeast quadrant of CPA through early evening Focus for severe t-storms appears confined to the southeast quadrant of the CWA over the Lower Susquehanna Valley. This area is on the northern end of linear convective line evolving eastward from DCA/BWI. Within a deeply meridional wind profile, damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will be the main hazards. Latest WOFS is more bullish on severe risk (both wind and tor probs) to the south of the MD line toward Chesapeake Bay. We plan to trim the Tornado Watch #68 based on the latest SPC watch status report. KEY MESSAGE 2: Quick burst of moderate to heavy snow and sharply falling temperatures to bring slippery travel across the Alleghenies this evening into early tonight Well-defined surface/arctic cold front is on the western doorstep at 18-19Z. Observed 1hr temp drops are on the order of 10-15 degrees along with wind shift to the west. In wake of this FROPA, temperatures will continue to plummet due to strong CAA, while mid and upper level flow remains southerly in response to the strongly tilted and digging upper trough. Combined with upslope enhancement, this will cause precipitation to rapidly transition to snow from the Laurel Highlands across the western and central Alleghenies through the evening commute. While some snow accumulation may be initially limited to non- paved surfaces particularly at lower elevations, the higher elevations will see a two-part winter wx event consisting of front-end "thump" followed by lake-enhanced upslope flow. A brief period of snowfall rates surpassing 1"/hr (>60% chance) is expected btwn roughly 00-04UTC where a quick 1-4" of snow is fcst. Typically favored locations +2,000ft elevation should continue to see additional minor accums into Tuesday with local amounts 4+ possible. Pressure rises and steeper lapse rates/colder air aloft will maintain gusty winds with max gusts approaching advisory levels. KEY MESSAGE 3: Much colder with a couple of locally heavy snow showers possible Tuesday As the trailing vorticity maxima and secondary shortwave embedded within the trough over the OH Valley moves east Tuesday afternoon, convective cellular snow showers and isolated snow squalls could develop across the area. Additional snowfall accumulations will be light with any of these convective elements, but briefly heavy snow rates and gusty winds could cause local travel impacts due to rapid reductions in visibility. A SPS may be needed due to the broad coverage of locally heavy snow showers.

This line of showed moving north will dampen instability and i am not sure it can rebuild again.