dryslot
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Everything posted by dryslot
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Congrats Diane and Welcome!
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I still have some leftover piles of FV3 snow in the yard from last winter.
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I was comparing the GFS to the FV3 when it was running in parallel last winter and it raised quite a few eyebrows with some of the precip outputs and what form they could take.........
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Get use to it, It has a cold bias so its going to show a lot of cold going forward.
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Ridiculous, Next they will change the date for christmas because of the grinch storms.
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Right now, I have my rifle ready.
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That is the period we may get a shot at something wintry, EPS is further east or thereafter.
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Clicking there heels?
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That was more sarcasm, This has trended into NBD and should have been left alone.
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May even be some upslope snows on 11/3 in the elevations of the Green, Whites and Mahoosuc's on the Euro
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12z Euro op really amps the 8th-9th system into a cutter this run.
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Indeed, The euro doesn't have it at the same magnitude as the 12z GFS had it, But the models and ensembles have picked up on this threat the last few runs so i think its legit.
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Those winds though, Can't have candy flying all over the place or the parents mixed drinks get spilled.
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And from what i have seen, That's going to be the case, But lets just sensationalize all weather events and then relate it to AGW.
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Warning snows for CNE/NNE, Ah no......
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What a joke, Thats as bad as CT schools cancelling for flakes in the air.
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And voila, Just what has been talked about, The 12z GFS for the 11/8-11/9th..............
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The bulk of the precip remains well west now, Halloween Cancel, Uncancel?
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Ha, Yeah, No.
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Oh there sure will when some get their weenie slapped around by the Euro 90 mins later.
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70% chance off being wrong?
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Yeah, You would have to take them down just based on that run, A more conservative approach is going to lead to more credibility in this instance and with a cold bias you may still be wrong in the end without weighing the GFS on a lower percentage, Going to be rough going forward.
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Your going to see more on air mets have to modify there forecast going forward or there's going to be some big bust with the ones that weigh the GFS model quite heavily in there forecast from what i have seen so far.
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Its not going to be good this winter when you have a legit threat when your only going to be able to rely on one or two med range models with limited charts to forecast.
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I have not looked at the EPS yet, It looked to be on there yesterday too, I usually check the Op runs on the models first before the ensembles but looks like I won’t have to waste much time with the GFS. Lol .
