The 1st part of this has been locked for days with any low that moves west to east, Folks north of there were all good to a certain extent, You also had some blocking and HP preventing this from going more NW or this could have easily been another cutter, Part two was going to be more complex, That's where trying to nail down banding that changes from run to is a tough task, But with that potent ULL, It comes down to where the SLP gets captured to whom it can affect, We still don't have that answer.