dryslot

Yeah, To bad it didn't though, Its about the same as 06z.

Probably not that magnitude, Shorter duration, 22 yr anniversary was on the 4th for that one.

Going to get pretty icy i think this weekend.

And east.

May be the messenger shuffle going on, Edit: Just saw above you mentioned this lol

3k Nam gets the precip pretty far north, It has 0.10" here.

God is that close to something real good

Could be, Didn't delve in that deep yet.

0z Nam should be NW too.

Its kind of like the Ukie/Euro, SREF/NAM they follow ea other at times.

Hate to even say this but that was a pretty big bump NW on the 21z SREF

Squeezing that thru a narrow area between the high to the NNW and the SE ridge, That's a good damming signature though up here.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the siggy ice ends up somewhere in SNE.

Day before his last log in.........

Last time he logged on here was 3/3/15 or maybe a family member.

Yes, Clinch, We would PM late at night to discuss some of these nuances, I still have some of his PM's actually, I just looked back.

These would be the types of storms that Scott would love to do analysis on, He left us way to soon................

He would be banging the RUC.

Its really to bad this gets kicked east as it gains lat, Would have been a nice warning snow for a lot of folks

Someone will see siggy ice, And some others are going to see siggy snow, And others will see just rain from this.

Ha, Like they read my mind..... A major pattern shift commences thereafter with building heights and a warm trend, especially aloft, heading into the weekend. A northern stream clipper crosses Quebec early in the weekend which provides another chance at light rain or snow and a reinforcing shot of cold advection. This could set the stage for a complex mixed precipitation event as warm frontal/overrunning precipitation renews along the stalled front by the middle and end of the weekend in response to approaching southern stream shortwave trough moving SW to NE. This of course is highly dependent on the position of the stalled front and thus the southern extent of a cold low-level airmass; at this time there is model agreement that strong high pressure over ON/QC will provide cold flow from the north enough to push and keep this boundary south over southern New England Saturday night. We still have broadly diverging solutions to contend with at this stage regarding impacts with some solutions suggesting cool temps through the column yielding a rain/snow mix, but others place warm temperatures aloft over cool surface temperatures which would result widespread ice or sleet Saturday night into Sunday. Anomalously high heights allow a juicy airmass to develop with PWAT presently progged to exceed 1.0" by early Sunday, 3-4 standard deviations above normal. Total QPF could thus be on the order of 2-3" where the boundary sets up with models for now placing the axis of rain from northern New York state extending eastward into central and northern New England.

Euro has it too but it was further north at 12z, Some high Pwats with this one so it will have the juice.

I think you will see this push further south in time, That's a very cold high to the NW that models underestimate at longer leads.

Its a heck of a gradient, But at least from the trajectory this one looks to take, There would be a pretty wide swath and another one follows this one that looks to be a SWFE that moves underneath us too.