Next few cycles should start to tell the tale, We are inside 4 days now so there should be some changes coming up on guidance as energy comes on shore out west.
Yeah, Its possible the models could be focusing on the wrong s/w with all these indvidual pieces of vorticity in the flow, Next few runs should make this somewhat more clear i would think, I'm giving it until thurs 12z.
Plus it looks like someone fired #00 buckshot out of a shotgun @H5 with 5-6 spurious pieces moving around in the flow which the models cant resolve to phase with.