Watches hoisted up here.
DISCUSSION...Two areas of ongoing convection, one along the ME/QC
border and the other near the NY/VT border vicinity, should
intensify as they spread east across parts of New England into
midday. 12Z CAR sounding sampled a moderate combination of MLCAPE
and effective bulk shear with convective temperature in the upper
70s. 14Z surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low
80s with abundant insolation ahead of both convective areas. While
the 12Z HRRR appears to be poorly handling the near-term scenario,
it does suggest another round of strong to potentially severe
convection may emanate eastward from ongoing storms across the Saint
Lawrence Valley near northern NY. A mix of isolated severe hail with
a predominant threat of scattered strong to localized severe gusts
producing damaging winds seems probable.