LWX 4am discussion
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds will be thickening Wednesday morning in advance of storm
system developing over the TN River Valley and southern mid-
Atlantic. Overrunning precip is expected to move into the central
Shenandoah Valley and central VA Wed afternoon. With very high 850-
700 mb thicknesses, main p-type through Thu is expected to be frza
west of the Blue Ridge Mountains, fzra to rain east of Blue Ridge
and I-95, and mainly rain along and east of I-95. This is going to
be a very heavy precip event with even the "driest" top three
ensemble members from the EPS showing an inch or more of liquid and
median values of 1.5 to 2.0 inches. The source of cold air is likely
too far north (northern Quebec or Newfoundland) to keep the cold air
in place for a long period of time, however, in-situ damming from
evaporational cooling will likely help strengthen the wedge. Given
the amount of precip expected, there is the potential for signifcant
icing to occur across the higher elevs and deeper valleys in eastern
WV and western MD. For this reason, a Winter Storm Watch has been
issued for areas west of the Blue Ridge and Skyline Drive with
likelihood of Ice Storm Warnings needed by Wed morning. The storm
system will be crossing the area late Thu night with steady precip
ending, but some wrap around rain/showers and mountain snow showers
lingering into Fri. There is also the potential for strong winds
across the mountains Thu that will have additional impacts on trees
and powerlines with ice accretion and those in the mountain areas
should be prepared for extended power outages and road closures.