mappy

Pivotal's version of the FRAM map, for 18z NAM. Not as bad as Will's WB map above.

Looks like 35 for my high today. Expected to be closer to 40. 35/23 currently

I'm about 11 miles, as the crow flies, to your east and only 34. Def seems colder than I thought it would be.

FWIW: low was 20 IMBY, currently 33/24

I knew a 2hr delay was pretty much certain, but seeing that sub32 temps may hang on longer than 10amish, probably means a full closure. At least up in my area.

Oh yeah? Mmmm wondering if my kid's presumed 2-hr delay will become a day off.

not to mention the salt will really screw over people's wells due to run off!

Good luck friend! I have to give one this afternoon for work

probably should do your homework just in case

For you in Frederick County? absolutely.

probably because its happening during the morning rush hour

same up my way. they were out last night putting down brine

Ah sorry, didn’t realize I cut off the legend #mappyfail

Pivotal’s FRAM ice output for the nam

In this case, it is more based on location than elevations itself. With the low coming across the bay towards DE, it is pulling in warmer air off the bay/ocean and that warm air warms the upper atmosphere columns, hence us getting sleet and freezing rain. places out west are further from the low, so that warmer air doesn't rotate in nearly as much and they stay colder longer, and at the surface. Eventually places out west will warm too but stay cold at the surface (this is where their elevation is useful) so they will have a much more prolonged freezing event as the upper columns will be above 32, but the surface at or below freezing.

Yep, it will be in the 40s for most tomorrow, with lows in the mid 30s tomorrow night ahead of precip. that doesnt bode well for a good WAA snow thump before the column warms up due to the low and its placement. Even up here, I always warm quickly and sleet

No one pay attention to what happens to our north on Thursday. WAA will be helping them with a good front end thump of snow before any mixing. We are cursed by the closeness of the low, and won't see that snow thump.

No doubt this system has some juice in it, but the majority of it will fall as a cold rain, my backyard included. pouring freezing rain doesn't accumulate like freezing drizzle, it runs off before it can freeze on surfaces. And with a modest air mass ahead of the system, surfaces aren't going to be that cold to begin with. I think everyone is going to see a period of sleet, then freezing rain. Most south and east of 95 will change over quickly. NW crew will stay frozen longer, but even then they will turn to a cold pouring rain, with the exception of those way out of west in the mountains. we've done this dance before, everyone should know how it goes.

yeah dont think WB has that output. I'd def take the freezing rain maps WB offers with a grain of salt. they are overdone.

krobus has everything!

not even worth thinking about the what if.

that model output isn't happening.

no it was from pivotal

thats not happening with this setup, so best not to get your hopes up.

no way are people going to see .5-1" of freezing rain. thats stupid.