Stormlover74
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Everything posted by Stormlover74
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It's insane right now
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WWA end at 10am but euro keeps precip going all day until at least early evening. Would think that's mostly snow for those areas perhaps mixing back with rain in the afternoon?
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39 with moderate rain. Over 1.5" on the day now
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Hrrr has flakes flying tomorrow morning down to just west of the city
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Precip is moving in about 4 different directions
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The line looks closer to you
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Thundering
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Gfs has a few inches on Thanksgiving now
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Radar's looking good. Hrrr jackpots Monmouth and ocean now though at least initially
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Yeah either way we get a good soaking overnight. It's during the day and Friday that seem to be up in the air. I could see it being mostly showery stuff with a few tenths added to what we have by tomorrow morning. That's what the gfs has now. Cmc rgem euro remain the wettest
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The nam has been oddly dry with the backside of the system where the other models keep precip going all day Thursday and part of Friday. It does have the snow now later on in the day and it's at the end of its range so who knows
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I've never tracked a rainstorm so closely. It does feel like a blizzard is coming and I'm waiting for the nam to show me flipping to sleet
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Mt Holly As colder air wraps in on the back side, expect rain to change to snow across the higher elevations and perhaps even a little mixing at lower elevations. Temperatures look marginally cold at the surface, however elevations above 1500 feet could pick up a decent amount of snow in Pocono region (Pocono plateau in particular). As of now, 1-4 inches of snow is forecast Thursday night into Friday for the Poconos, however depending on the track of the low and the wraparound moisture, amounts could be higher. Some of this could get more into the higher elevations of far northwestern New Jersey. Some snow may develop a little farther south and east, however accumulations should drop of to little or nothing. Overall, a tricky forecast as there are several moving parts. upton Colder air will move in Thursday night as the sfc low occludes and moves up into SW New England and the lower Hudson Valley, and the upper low moves overhead. This will introduce potential for wet snow across the Lower Hudson Valley and far interior NE NJ Thu night into Fri AM, especially in the higher elevations. The timing and location of this process will ultimately determine the extent of the colder air and where the most organized forcing sets up.
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No hard freeze so maybe not
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Another potential storm on Thanksgiving too. Wild to think November could end up above average rainfall but still a ways to go of course
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Yeah I'd say it's worthy of its own thread since it's early and the first threat of the season.
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Should definitely see some wet flakes with temps in the mid 30s by Friday morning
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Seems more realistic. 0z was a bit overdone
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Except for the nam it's a 1 to 2" event now for most.
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I think last week it was giving us 2 feet
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Nah that's at least the 2nd or 3rd
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Euro ukie and cmc remain the wettest
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Yeah seems like a safe bet. 1"+ seems unlikely this far south
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There's also just a general lack of precip on the nam. Though at this point it probably represents the floor for this event .25 to .5". Rgem would be much better
