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Stormlover74

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Everything posted by Stormlover74

  1. Stormlover74
    Got pummeled up in summit And picked up .32 at home in Plainfield
  2. Stormlover74
    Decent storm rolling through northern union county
  3. Stormlover74
    Thursday
  4. Stormlover74
    Ewr adds another 90 to the list
  5. Stormlover74
    Mesoscale Discussion 1265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Areas affected...Portions of the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121732Z - 121900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A few multicell clusters of storms should emerge by mid to late afternoon, posing a threat for damaging winds. Trends will continue to be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows morning clearing over the region has allowed surface temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s F amid dew point temperatures in the low 70s F. This has led to somewhat rapid destabilization, with moderate instability (MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) being analyzed on surface mesoanalysis. Scattered convection is already developing across portions of southern Pennsylvania, western Maryland, and northern Virginia, as convective temperatures are being eclipsed amid a weak cap. Despite these thermodynamic indices, mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear remains rather weak (20-25 kt effective bulk shear). Thus, storms may struggle to organize in the short-term. Additional storms should develop across the region as isolation/destabilization continues. This should lead to the development of a few multicell clusters of storms this afternoon. Should this occur, strong low-level lapse rates should support a damaging wind potential. Thus, convective trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.
  6. Stormlover74
    Pouring here
  7. Stormlover74
    Sounds like it could hold together Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0511 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1015 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Areas affected...Portions of the Northern Mid-Atlantic...New York and Southern New England Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 120214Z - 120814Z SUMMARY...The threat for some areas of flash flooding will continue into the overnight hours from areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...A low amplitude shortwave impulse embedded in deep layer southwest flow continues to advance progressively off to the northeast with the energy crossing the northern Mid-Atlantic and advancing toward southern NY and adjacent areas of southern New England. This energy has been driving a fairly large area of heavy showers and thunderstorms this evening along and adjacent to a quasi-stationary frontal zone draped west to east across PA. In fact the latest radar imagery continues to show a forward propagating MCS advancing toward eastern PA which has been sustained by a pool of MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 j/kg focused across much of southeast to east-central PA. Stronger mid-level flow/shear also continues to play a role in storm organization with this activity. Well to the north of the front, there has been some heavy stratiform rain and embedded elevated convection associated with the warm air advection pattern impacting areas of north-central to northeast PA and adjacent areas of south-central NY. In fact, there has also been a notable corridor of enhanced low-level frontogenetical forcing in the 1000 to 850 mb layer which has helped to sustain a narrow axis of more enhanced rainfall with efficient rainfall processes yielding heavier rain rates. PWs have continued to increase with values of 1.8 to 2 inches in place given the deeper layer southwest flow advancing through the Mid-Atlantic states and toward southern NY and southern New England. Going into the overnight hours, the aforementioned band of convection will foster heavy rainfall and at least some flash flooding concerns for areas of eastern PA, and potentially getting into parts of northern NJ and far southeast NY. However, this activity should generally begin to weaken after midnight given an increasingly stable boundary layer.
  8. Stormlover74
  9. Stormlover74
    Yeah I was gonna say that cell over nw Middlesex looks nasty Over an inch on the day after that storm
  10. Stormlover74
    70-75 mph gusts were reported just to the north of there on LBI
  11. Stormlover74
    Our dewpoint may not drop below 60 until September
  12. Stormlover74
    Not sure how accurate but shows the precip hole over somerset and Middlesex
  13. Stormlover74
    .08 yesterday and .65 overnight
  14. Stormlover74
    Yeah right over my house. I guess I'll be happy with a quarter to a half inch
  15. Stormlover74
    Hrrr gives very little west of the city.
  16. Stormlover74
    Nam is wet but in a fairly narrow swath
  17. Stormlover74
  18. Stormlover74
    I'm expecting around a half inch to an inch from elsa
  19. Stormlover74
  20. Stormlover74
    Unless the nam is right and we get under an inch
  21. Stormlover74
    After seeing all the damage from the aforementioned storms I can't fathom a cat 3 or worse up here
  22. Stormlover74
    I think elsa mostly misses us with the best rains but we'll see
  23. Stormlover74
    And there's another batch forming to the west
  24. Stormlover74
    Getting hit now by this small cell that formed to my west
  25. Stormlover74
    Yikes that sounds scary
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