Global models have become fairly useless in this borderline events. They are great for track and intensity and when there's plenty of cold air in place they can do well in snowstorms but when 1 degree C is all the difference in the world they can really struggle
The NAM has the mix line really on the move by 11 and everybody just about is sleeting by noon, that lasts for several hours before a bit of a lull in the action and then the heavy rain arrives late tonight