Mt holly
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Confidence is building in regards to the mid week coastal storm and its potential impacts. There remain some slight differences between
the models, such as timing and placement of the low, which could impact the final track and specifics with the forecast such as snow
amounts and the location of the rain/snow mixing line. But it`s becoming even more likely that a significant snowfall event will
occur for portions of our forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night.
The latest guidance has trended a little slower with the low, which could potentially lead to more snow as more precipitation could fall
coincidentally with the cold air. The models are in good agreement with the location of the high moving across southeast Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will set up the cold air across the region. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, an area of low pressure is forecast to move up the southeast coast into
the Mid Atlantic region, then continue to our east and out to sea Wednesday night into Thursday. The current track from the
model guidance keeps the low near the coast as it passes by.
This will bring precipitation to the entire forecast area, possibly starting as early as Wednesday morning, and continuing
through the day into Wednesday night. With the current track, the forecast is for snow to start virtually everywhere Wednesday
morning, before a mix and/or change to rain begins to lift northward into portions of southern/central Delaware and Maryland, as well as southern/eastern New Jersey; just south and
east of the I-95 corridor. Along and north of the I-95 corridor, the forecast is for snow during the duration of the
event. Eventually by Wednesday evening and overnight, cold air will move back in for all places, and everyone could change back
over to snow where it changed to a mix or rain during the day.
The precipitation types will be dependent on the track of the low and thermal profiles, so this could all change in the coming
days. Although we do not have specific snowfall amounts forecast yet, all guidance is pointing to a significant snowfall
accumulation for eastern Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey, northern Delaware and northern Maryland.
Another concern becoming more likely with the storm will be strong, gusty winds, with wind gusts of at least 25-35 mph possible,
especially near the coast where even higher gusts could occur. Speaking of the coast, with strong, steady northeast flow, and
being only two days removed from the new moon, there will also be a chance for coastal flooding.
On Thursday, the ECMWF hangs on to some snowfall as the low pulls away, but the GFS and Canadian remain dry. So there will remain a
chance of snow during the morning Thursday, but probably not of much significance since that will all be Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Mt holly .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Confidence is building in regards to the mid week coastal storm and its potential impacts. There remain some slight differences between the models, such as timing and placement of the low, which could impact the final track and specifics with the forecast such as snow amounts and the location of the rain/snow mixing line. But it`s becoming even more likely that a significant snowfall event will occur for portions of our forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night. The latest guidance has trended a little slower with the low, which could potentially lead to more snow as more precipitation could fall coincidentally with the cold air. The models are in good agreement with the location of the high moving across southeast Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will set up the cold air across the region. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, an area of low pressure is forecast to move up the southeast coast into the Mid Atlantic region, then continue to our east and out to sea Wednesday night into Thursday. The current track from the model guidance keeps the low near the coast as it passes by. This will bring precipitation to the entire forecast area, possibly starting as early as Wednesday morning, and continuing through the day into Wednesday night. With the current track, the forecast is for snow to start virtually everywhere Wednesday morning, before a mix and/or change to rain begins to lift northward into portions of southern/central Delaware and Maryland, as well as southern/eastern New Jersey; just south and east of the I-95 corridor. Along and north of the I-95 corridor, the forecast is for snow during the duration of the event. Eventually by Wednesday evening and overnight, cold air will move back in for all places, and everyone could change back over to snow where it changed to a mix or rain during the day. The precipitation types will be dependent on the track of the low and thermal profiles, so this could all change in the coming days. Although we do not have specific snowfall amounts forecast yet, all guidance is pointing to a significant snowfall accumulation for eastern Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey, northern Delaware and northern Maryland. Another concern becoming more likely with the storm will be strong, gusty winds, with wind gusts of at least 25-35 mph possible, especially near the coast where even higher gusts could occur. Speaking of the coast, with strong, steady northeast flow, and being only two days removed from the new moon, there will also be a chance for coastal flooding. On Thursday, the ECMWF hangs on to some snowfall as the low pulls away, but the GFS and Canadian remain dry. So there will remain a chance of snow during the morning Thursday, but probably not of much significance since that will all be Wednesday and Wednesday night.
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