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Stormlover74

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Everything posted by Stormlover74

  1. Stormlover74
    Yeah the low didn't move much but the heaviest snow definitely moved north
  2. Stormlover74
    Probably holds serve. Hopefully doesn't get any further north
  3. Stormlover74
    It hasn't changed all that much
  4. Stormlover74
    Either it has a more NE component or it takes the low to Trenton
  5. Stormlover74
    I think if anything it's outside its useful range
  6. Stormlover74
    Lol
  7. Stormlover74
    Meanwhile low 60s on tap for today
  8. Stormlover74
    Hopefully it pulls east and stalls
  9. Stormlover74
    Its not alone though. Can't be ignored since it matches the euro well Anyway let's see if the gfs/cmc hold serve
  10. Stormlover74
    I was thinking March 2017 where we saw snow to heavy sleet and back to snow just west of the city.
  11. Stormlover74
    Doubt it. Could mix or change for a time but enough cold air around for at least a decent snow event
  12. Stormlover74
    NAM at 84 hrs is a hugger with warm air aloft Hopefully getting ready to pull east shortly thereafter
  13. Stormlover74
    Hopefully it heads east soon after this frame
  14. Stormlover74
    At least that one turned ese around VA Beach.
  15. Stormlover74
    Still a good hit and there's likely more after this. I'll gladly take 6 to 10
  16. Stormlover74
    OT but I was 8 for the blizzard of 83 and have been obsessed with snow ever since
  17. Stormlover74
    Yeah quite a bit colder
  18. Stormlover74
  19. Stormlover74
    The train station is the best part of secaucus
  20. Stormlover74
    Its interesting that the high didn't move or weaken. Maybe the confluence was weaker this run?
  21. Stormlover74
    Its warm
  22. Stormlover74
    Upton all in with 90% chance of snow. They do mention the high could be modeled too strong though it actually got stronger this run so as this system approaches, expect snow to develop Wed afternoon, and then become moderate to heavy at times Wed night as the low wraps up just off the Mid Atlantic coast. Forecast mentions almost all snow at this point with a good chance of significant accumulation, with the caveat that the high to the NE may be modeled too strong, and if the high does retreat more quickly that could allow for a more N/W low track as well as potential for mixed precip for the NYC metro area and Long Island as marine air and possible warmer air aloft get involved.
  23. Stormlover74
    Its not the final solution. Could go back to snowier or trend wetter
  24. Stormlover74
    Usually we're at the point the models lose the storm altogether only to bring it back Verbatim its 33 and heavy snow at the peak near and west of the city
  25. Stormlover74
    Mt holly .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Confidence is building in regards to the mid week coastal storm and its potential impacts. There remain some slight differences between the models, such as timing and placement of the low, which could impact the final track and specifics with the forecast such as snow amounts and the location of the rain/snow mixing line. But it`s becoming even more likely that a significant snowfall event will occur for portions of our forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night. The latest guidance has trended a little slower with the low, which could potentially lead to more snow as more precipitation could fall coincidentally with the cold air. The models are in good agreement with the location of the high moving across southeast Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will set up the cold air across the region. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, an area of low pressure is forecast to move up the southeast coast into the Mid Atlantic region, then continue to our east and out to sea Wednesday night into Thursday. The current track from the model guidance keeps the low near the coast as it passes by. This will bring precipitation to the entire forecast area, possibly starting as early as Wednesday morning, and continuing through the day into Wednesday night. With the current track, the forecast is for snow to start virtually everywhere Wednesday morning, before a mix and/or change to rain begins to lift northward into portions of southern/central Delaware and Maryland, as well as southern/eastern New Jersey; just south and east of the I-95 corridor. Along and north of the I-95 corridor, the forecast is for snow during the duration of the event. Eventually by Wednesday evening and overnight, cold air will move back in for all places, and everyone could change back over to snow where it changed to a mix or rain during the day. The precipitation types will be dependent on the track of the low and thermal profiles, so this could all change in the coming days. Although we do not have specific snowfall amounts forecast yet, all guidance is pointing to a significant snowfall accumulation for eastern Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey, northern Delaware and northern Maryland. Another concern becoming more likely with the storm will be strong, gusty winds, with wind gusts of at least 25-35 mph possible, especially near the coast where even higher gusts could occur. Speaking of the coast, with strong, steady northeast flow, and being only two days removed from the new moon, there will also be a chance for coastal flooding. On Thursday, the ECMWF hangs on to some snowfall as the low pulls away, but the GFS and Canadian remain dry. So there will remain a chance of snow during the morning Thursday, but probably not of much significance since that will all be Wednesday and Wednesday night.
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