Jump to content

Stormlover74

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    21,243

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Stormlover74

  1. Stormlover74
    Philly's about to get crushed
  2. Stormlover74
    The rain shield collapsed but still getting some good lightning
  3. Stormlover74
    Airmass must be too stable. Everything's weakening as it moves east closer to the coast
  4. Stormlover74
    The first batch moving in from somerset is more bark than bite. The heavy stuff over Hunterdon looks good
  5. Stormlover74
    @weatherpruf? Naturally it explodes 2 miles to my east lol
  6. Stormlover74
    Looks like you're going to get slammed pretty good
  7. Stormlover74
    Plus more from union county heading that direction
  8. Stormlover74
    Ewr reporting 41 mph sustained winds and 1 mile visibility at 3pm
  9. Stormlover74
    Ewr is probably getting blasted
  10. Stormlover74
    Much earlier than expected
  11. Stormlover74
    Watch issued for a large area
  12. Stormlover74
    Even if it doesn't cool off all that much lower dews next week will feel nice
  13. Stormlover74
    1 or 2 98 degree days can be much worse than 3 consecutive 91 degree days but would not qualify as a heatwave
  14. Stormlover74
    That's why I don't think of 90 for 3 days as a heatwave especially for places like ewr
  15. Stormlover74
    We don't have many Monmouth posters...
  16. Stormlover74
    Quite a few branches down and some street flooding
  17. Stormlover74
    Got pummeled up in summit And picked up .32 at home in Plainfield
  18. Stormlover74
    Decent storm rolling through northern union county
  19. Stormlover74
    Thursday
  20. Stormlover74
    Ewr adds another 90 to the list
  21. Stormlover74
    Mesoscale Discussion 1265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Areas affected...Portions of the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121732Z - 121900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A few multicell clusters of storms should emerge by mid to late afternoon, posing a threat for damaging winds. Trends will continue to be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows morning clearing over the region has allowed surface temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s F amid dew point temperatures in the low 70s F. This has led to somewhat rapid destabilization, with moderate instability (MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) being analyzed on surface mesoanalysis. Scattered convection is already developing across portions of southern Pennsylvania, western Maryland, and northern Virginia, as convective temperatures are being eclipsed amid a weak cap. Despite these thermodynamic indices, mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear remains rather weak (20-25 kt effective bulk shear). Thus, storms may struggle to organize in the short-term. Additional storms should develop across the region as isolation/destabilization continues. This should lead to the development of a few multicell clusters of storms this afternoon. Should this occur, strong low-level lapse rates should support a damaging wind potential. Thus, convective trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.
  22. Stormlover74
    Pouring here
  23. Stormlover74
    Sounds like it could hold together Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0511 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1015 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Areas affected...Portions of the Northern Mid-Atlantic...New York and Southern New England Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 120214Z - 120814Z SUMMARY...The threat for some areas of flash flooding will continue into the overnight hours from areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...A low amplitude shortwave impulse embedded in deep layer southwest flow continues to advance progressively off to the northeast with the energy crossing the northern Mid-Atlantic and advancing toward southern NY and adjacent areas of southern New England. This energy has been driving a fairly large area of heavy showers and thunderstorms this evening along and adjacent to a quasi-stationary frontal zone draped west to east across PA. In fact the latest radar imagery continues to show a forward propagating MCS advancing toward eastern PA which has been sustained by a pool of MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 j/kg focused across much of southeast to east-central PA. Stronger mid-level flow/shear also continues to play a role in storm organization with this activity. Well to the north of the front, there has been some heavy stratiform rain and embedded elevated convection associated with the warm air advection pattern impacting areas of north-central to northeast PA and adjacent areas of south-central NY. In fact, there has also been a notable corridor of enhanced low-level frontogenetical forcing in the 1000 to 850 mb layer which has helped to sustain a narrow axis of more enhanced rainfall with efficient rainfall processes yielding heavier rain rates. PWs have continued to increase with values of 1.8 to 2 inches in place given the deeper layer southwest flow advancing through the Mid-Atlantic states and toward southern NY and southern New England. Going into the overnight hours, the aforementioned band of convection will foster heavy rainfall and at least some flash flooding concerns for areas of eastern PA, and potentially getting into parts of northern NJ and far southeast NY. However, this activity should generally begin to weaken after midnight given an increasingly stable boundary layer.
  24. Stormlover74
  25. Stormlover74
    Yeah I was gonna say that cell over nw Middlesex looks nasty Over an inch on the day after that storm
×
×
  • Create New...