Stormlover74

Pivotal weather is down just in case you wanted to track..well absolutely nothing

This guy takes a pic of the same tree on the same day every fall. This year has definitely been weird around here

Biberty

No rain til Halloween?

I think we'll be ok

The one in CT at 75 mph. NE of the watch area

Yeah probably just a sprinkle here.but maybe some decent gusts

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey... Southern Morris County in northern New Jersey... Southern Warren County in northwestern New Jersey... Northwestern Somerset County in northern New Jersey... Southeastern Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania... * Until 615 PM EDT. * At 535 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Alpha, or near Easton, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

Line looks decent currently. A few warnings

It'll be in and out in 15 minutes. Surprised the watch is all the way til 10pm but I guess they have to

Storm just kinda hangs out for several days

No real surprises. Wet and warm Also this is new: The National Weather Service will implement the use of “Particularly Dangerous Situation” wording in select Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings this season. This language will help forecasters alert partners and the public about high-confidence blizzards or ice storms of historic severity. These rare events typically pose exceptional threats by posing imminent danger to life and unprecedented disruptions to emergency services.

..Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... As the upper trough amplifies and the surface cyclone deepens over the northern Appalachians, low-level convergence along the attendant surface trough will increase into the morning hours, resulting in the development of low-topped convection that will quickly evolve into a squall line across western NY/PA. The northward advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will result in 500 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis ahead of the line, with locally higher values approaching 1000 J/kg in spots. Some guidance members suggest that surface airmass recovery may be brief ahead of the squall line given the potential for widespread antecedent cloud cover. Still, strong tropospheric wind fields will accompany the squall line, with forecast soundings showing 50+ kt flow as low as 800-700 mb, with 35-40 kt flow contained within the boundary layer, just above the surface. Regardless of the degree of destabilization that precedes the squall line, downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft within the squall line should support strong to occasionally severe surface gusts, mostly in the 35-55 kt range. Scattered instances of tree/wire damage are expected, starting from around western PA during the late morning hours, to the East Coast around early evening.