cheese007

In this case it is Broyles being Broyles. Everything is the outbreak of the century to him

Gonna refer back to SPC issuing a high risk as a guarantee of a bust. Especially since it was Broyles who made the outlook

Looks like it's gonna pass right over me

So bust confirmed? /s

I mean that and what we saw last week generally + how rare big outbreaks with long track violent tornadoes are generally

Not crazy about that tor warned cell to the southwest heading into the metro

Mesoscale Discussion 0243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Areas affected...portions of central and north-central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 47... Valid 242310Z - 250015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 47 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 47. DISCUSSION...Scattered cellular convection, including a few supercells, have evolved near/just east of the DFW metro area over the past hour. Additionally, a longer-lived supercell over San Saba/Mills/Hamilton counties has recently produced 1.5-1.75 inch hail. Additional shallow convection has deepened in the past 15 minutes along the I-35 corridor between Waco and Hillsboro. The storms are in a favorable environment for updraft rotation, with southeasterly low-level flow veering strongly with height amid weak to moderate instability. Additionally, the cells just east of DFW appear to be interacting favorably with a warm front lifting northward along the I-20 corridor in that area. As gradual low-level moistening continues, surface-based convection is expected to continue to pose a risk for tornadoes in addition to hail (potentially significant near supercells). A greater tornado risk may evolve after the 00Z time frame pending backing of low-level wind fields due to cyclogenesis along the Rio Grande/Big Bend area. ..Cook.. 03/24/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31569956 32179905 32709797 33069657 33049602 32809556 32249539 31659587 31029687 30349821 30049936 30160000 30490018 31140019 31569956

What's the threat looking like for western Dallas county? I have an event at 7 that might be impacted

30/10 probs

Huh was not expecting a Tor watch tbh. Any possibility it gets extended northward?

Starting to get some clouds going up in DFW. Looks like it's about showtime

The biggest sign of this setup possibly underperforming is if SPC goes high-risk lol

Just outside the ENH area but def more concerened relative to last few risks. The mornings with clear blue skies are always the most worriesome for me!

Looks like DFW is gonna get a second round of storms

Slight risk day today. Wonder if anything interesting happens?

That's actually a really neat tool! Another fun time sink avoiding real work lol

What is it with the past 7 years and the primary modes of severe weather occurring outside the high risk area? Is there something seriously wrong with our understanding of tornadogenesis, or is it just small n and "bad" luck?

Last PDS watch I was under that I can recall didn't even spawn a thunderstorm. Last major severe event here occured during a slight risk

So when was the last SPC high risk day that actually panned out as predicted? 2014?

Maybe the bullet will be dodged after all...

Ironically, 5/20/19 played out similarly. Everyone got so burned by that day they ignored the massive outbreak that ensued over the next ten days

I acknowledged in other posts that we are early. Just seems similar so far. Not at all ruling out things changing!

5/20/19 had 38 tornadoes. So again similar (so far) to today

Would be somewhat ironic for two high risks to fall short in similar manner. What was the cause for the 5/20/19 fizzle anyways? I know folks were vexed at the time

Ngl definitely some 5/20/19 vibes with a lot of warnings, lot of wall clouds, but relatively (key word) few tornadoes. The night is young though. Plenty of time for the high risk to verify