cheese007

Media hype getting into gear already. February always seems to be make or break for North Texas winters!

Might see some snow flurries Wednesday in the northwestern part of DFW

Getting some snow flurries out by DFW airport

Tornado watch until 10:00 PM including Beaumont and Houston metro areas. 30/20 probs SEL3 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 13 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Regenerative supercells will remain possible through this evening. Brief tornadoes will be the primary hazard. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast of Lufkin TX to 15 miles east southeast of Houston TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 20025. ...Grams

Confirmed Tornado near Kenefick per NWS and TX Storm Chasers

2nd Tor warning out for Dayton, TX

Tornado warning in the Houston metro area near Bush airport

NYD threat upgraded to ENH for sig tors

D1 upgrade to ENH for northern AL/MS, parts of AR and TN

D3 slight risk for areas listed above and D5 15% covering a similar area with the addition of more of Arkansas and Louisiana, portions of middle and western Tennessee, Missouri bootheel, and south-central Kentucky

Image description: SPC 15% contour covering far southeastern Arkansas, far northeastern and central Louisiana, most of Mississippi, and a significant portion of western Alabama

Looks like at least one more chance for severe weather in 2021 coming soon: ...D5/Wed - Northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and vicinity... Prior to D5, the warm sector moisture has been contaminated by continental air which has led to weak instability across much of the warm sector. However, by Tuesday night, a true maritime tropical moisture feed is forecast to overtake the western Gulf of Mexico. Persistent southerly flow will advect this airmass inland from eastern Texas to northern Mississippi/Alabama by Wednesday afternoon. Moderate instability should develop south of a front, which is expected to be in place from eastern Texas into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley region. There is decent model agreement with the increasing low-level moisture and the relative position of the surface front. However, the upper-level pattern does cast more uncertainty on the forecast. The details of any severe weather threat will come from the evolution of the low-amplitude wave to eject from the larger scale western CONUS upper-level trough. Predictability of the timing/amplitude of upper-level troughs such as these is inherently challenging, especially at Day 5. Therefore, it is unsurprising that there is still considerable spread between available mid-range model guidance. The last 2 runs of the ECMWF have shown a more amplified mid-upper level trough which would initiate a greater low-level mass response and likely lead to a greater severe-weather threat. Therefore, uncertainty remains regarding the evolution, timing, and amplitude of the upper-level pattern on Wednesday. However, there has been a consistent signal for surface-based storms in an environment with moderate buoyancy and strong shear for several days. The aforementioned arrival of a maritime tropical airmass in the vicinity of a surface front and at least weak height falls aloft is consistent with at least scattered storm development. Therefore, confidence is high enough to introduce 15 percent severe probabilities for Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2021

40% chance of a watch being issued roughly covering the D1 slight risk

What even is this shape?

"Our housing is poorly built" and "The NWS has been needlessly stingy with EF5 ratings" are not mutually exclusive statements

Either that or tornadoes that happen to hit high-rises and do major damage

What I meant to post lol

As a counterpoint to the previous tweet. Would not be shocked if EF-4 is the final rating

Looks like the tri-state record may stand after all

Unbelievable damage footage coming out of Mayfield. Like others have said it very much looks similar to the Joplin aftermath

Awful. Just awful

More signs of major damage in Bowling Green