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PackGrad05

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  1. PackGrad05
    Climatologically, February is not that far off from January for RDU in amount of snow. Yes, January is the best chance, but February has produced great events. Once we get to February 20 is when I start getting more concerned. Being completely blanked is still on the table for sure. But so is getting a 10" storm.
  2. PackGrad05
    It was fun while it lasted, unless trends boomerang back the other direction. EPS reduced probabilities dramatically... Less than 10 members showing anything (trace or so) for RDU.
  3. PackGrad05
    The 18Z GEFS looks very similar to the 12Z EPS, with most of the good snow being west of I-85... The GEFS also shows the precipitation beginning on Friday 1/13 and lasting until 1/15. Temperatures too warm for central NC. EURO shows highs near 37 on Saturday during bulk of precip. Triad and west stays around freezing.
  4. PackGrad05
    And that model (at least the maps I'm looking at), ends at 00Z on 1/14. The EPS shows the bulk of the precip 12-24 hours after that.
  5. PackGrad05
    The number of individual members of EPS showing something for RDU increased to around 19/50. The mean also increased to almost an inch.
  6. PackGrad05
    The 12Z EPS is a "west of 85" storm. Anything east of 85 is a trace to half inch at best.
  7. PackGrad05
    The 00Z EPS continued to look decent with almost half the members showing something for RDU. . GEFS isn't sold yet, with only a couple members showing anything (but at least it isn't blank)
  8. PackGrad05
    Roughly 16 out of 50 EPS members (1/4 00Z) have at least something for RDU around the 1/15 time period. This has increased since yesterday's runs.
  9. PackGrad05
    We missed the chance with the prolonged cold. Unless the pattern shifts, we are going to need to rely on great timing with a quick cold blast and a low moving in a favorable path. That's typically what we end up getting anyway. Snow in the morning and melted by the afternoon. The ensembles do show some members picking up on a system around the 15th.
  10. PackGrad05
    EPS is showing 66 for New Year's Day. GEFS showing 69. Cool down after that. Climatologically, timeframe around MLK Holiday is always good for us.
  11. PackGrad05
    We are still a week or more away. When was the last time we tracked anything that came to fruition 7-10 days away? I’ll write this off once we are within 5 days. .
  12. PackGrad05
    To me, that looks like a frontal boundary headed east. I would expect that cold air (not as cold, but cold) to move east after this image.
  13. PackGrad05
    That ECMWF image is valid on Tuesday 12/20. From looking at the orientation of the cold, it seems to push in after that. American agrees that the really cold would come 12/25 or after. (I know, we keep kicking it down the road), but we aren't even to January yet.
  14. PackGrad05
    Just noticed the February 27-28 potential. Right now it looks very similar to the way the last system panned out. The low too far offshore and the potential for some flurries as the upper level energy swings through. Something to watch for sure.
  15. PackGrad05
    I still think we get at least one more winter system to track.
  16. PackGrad05
    The problem is, Brad routinely posts vlogs when there is an upcoming system of any significance. In that video, he explains, in an easy to understand way, the reality of the forecast and what may or may not happen. However, people do not take the time to watch or listen and instead will believe a fantasy model they see posted. I'm sure this is super frustrating as a broadcast met. He is trying to do his best to debunk taking those maps for face value. I think this is a great way to illustrate it.
  17. PackGrad05
    Even the Sunday night round has pretty much vanished. This is a wrap. (For central NC)
  18. PackGrad05
    WRAL futurecasf shows a nice burst of snow Monday morning. They said they are watching that for more impacts.
  19. PackGrad05
    Really the only thing that intrigues me at this point are Monday morning commute implications. Some models (GFS) shows potential for some stuff Sunday night and temperatures will dip below freezing.
  20. PackGrad05
    what did the afternoon EURO and ENS show
  21. PackGrad05
    That image is showing snow in central NC at 1AM on Monday morning. The timing is good and that could put down a quick dusting or so.
  22. PackGrad05
    Overall axis/focus point of the precip is the same...difference is QPF.
  23. PackGrad05
    From mike maze: Both the European and the GFS are still showing some snow on Sunday, which at this time should not stick. The timing on both shows it to be a morning event and so later in the weather should be mostly dry. Tune in at 10PM on Fox 50 to see how this evolves. @WRALWeather
  24. PackGrad05
    European ensemble shows 10% chance of Raleigh getting 1 inch.
  25. PackGrad05
    WRAL just said odds are increasing this afternoon. However warm ground temps would limit accumulations to elevated surfaces near VA border.
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