PackGrad05

GFS increased liquid equivalent for Raleigh through 06Z Monday. And temps are way colder than EURO.

Mike Maze just posted the 18Z Euro and showed the "transition to rain" trend at the end of it Sunday evening. They are leaning heavily toward the EURO. I don't think I've seen them post or discuss the GFS or any other model this whole week. With that said, Tuesday and Wednesday also could feature highs in the 40s. A day or two ago it was much colder. Can't wait to see 00Z data with HH data.

that NWS RAH graphic is from their automated site here: https://www.weather.gov/rah/nc#snow I would be cautious using that....

Euro ensembles continue to look way better than the operational. That’s a plus .

I’m stating what the model showed, just like when a model is posted here. The model showed the rain line in southern Johnston. And the wedge was not depicted as robustly. .

WRAL future cast model shows the rain line not far from wake on Sunday. The wedge is not as robust at all. .

If it's going to be ice, we can only hope QPF drops off as well. Anything to prevent major accrual.

Ever since Fishel left, WRAL loves posting the probability of snow directly from the EPS. They call the European ensemble an exclusive product they have. .

Agreed with north hills. The only thing worth watching at this range is trends. The trends have been obvious. We will see if it swings back. Short range models will also begin to be useful. .

Even with the robust signal depicted days ago, it is still prudent to remember the 2 to 3 day rule. Until more data is digested and you get in shorter range, you have to look at overall trends. The current models are disappointing for sure, but much more in line with climatology than what was depicted days ago. Even the QPF has shifted considerably north. With that said, they can still shift back and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight rebound. But a north of 85 system seems to be a good call still. .

Surprised that Brad said he's currently thinking 3" at bare minimum. That's bold from him this far out.

Fishel said it perfectly. I completely agree with his line of thinking. .

NWS will wait for 2-3 runs of model consistency before changing their official forecast, as they should... If the 00Z and 6Z EUROs look similar, expect them to shift accordingly.

Agreed wholeheartedly.

Surface temps rebound quite a bit as well on the EURO. 12Z temps never got much past mid 20s in Wake. 18Z temps are up to freezing or just above. Would limit ice accrual.

Yes, but as others have said, the TREND over the past 24 hours has been clear. A shift north with the snow/mix line. This EURO was indeed a huge shift and may bounce back, but the overall trend is clear.

NWS and local mets lean heavily toward EURO. Expect their forecasts to shift accordingly.

Still a lot of time, but not the trends you want to see at this stage if you're a snow lover in central piedmont. 18Z EURO ejection looked much different

GEFS much more in line with EURO. Consolidated on an I-85 battle zone. The difference is the battle zone is snow/ice vs. snow/rain.

Baron model in line with euro. More north than gfs .

Snow sleet line moved north, even in gfs. More in line with European .

I am currently going 1-2 inches of snow for southern wake and then a good amount of sleet and fzra on top. Still very concerned with too much mixing for wake. EPS only gives 60 percent chance of 3 inches for Raleigh. .

FIRST CALL

WRAL also showing something in line with Ethan's possibilities... The cold rain line not far from I-95 corridor.