PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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How in the world are some of you throwing in the towel? No, this isn’t going to be a ten inch snow for central NC, but a lot of folks are still going to see a nice snow (even if only an inch). I still consider myself on a snow drought bc all we got was sleet during the storm on the tenthth. The signals are great for central NC to the coast to get some snow. No mixing issues and high ratios. Plus instant sticking due to super cold antecedent conditions. .
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Of course
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The euro is showing normal ratios. They will be higher so increase those amounts by one inch .
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It is still very much game on for garner, fuquay, knightdale, Clayton, benson, Wilson, Smithfield, etc etc etc. .
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The GEFS is better and gets light coverage up to I-95....i notice it is also slower than other models
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Once again, the GFS stays flat and has the same track, but doesn't crank up enough to produce enough precipitation.
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GFS has snow all along the coast, albeit light
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EPS probabilities: Areas east of I-95 have at least a 75% chance of 1" of snow, increasing as you go further east. Wake County probabilities vary 45-70% from Morrisville to Fuquay. 3" probabilities is 20-40% from west to east across Wake 50% or greater east of I-95 The ENTIRE state of NC has at least 80% chance of dusting. Never seen that before.
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I saw that and I also saw that the new model data would not be in the NBM until 19Z
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Remember that on the NW edge of that shield, ratios will be BETTER than 10:1
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I'm 2 miles from JOCO
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12Z Euro looks great. Can I ask how you get it so fast? I use weathermodels.com and the 12Z euro isn't loaded yet.
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That's very strange. which site did you use to view the model?
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It improved a lot from previous run. Much more moisture and more NW slightly
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Brad P just released a great video for those wanting more info about why it may or may not move northwest. Has to do with the strength of the system. If it doesn't get stronger, it will stay more south. and he even mentioned CONSISTENCY with overall track of the system being a coastal runner
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the reason the NBM increased is because it takes into account ALL the ensembles.
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GFS looks like it tries to phase more with a wave near CA and stays flatter... Euro misses the phase and does more a Miller A
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GEFS has been remarkably consistent with 1" probabilities for central NC. Approximately 10-20% chance over the last three runs. You knew the models would suppress today after all the talk on TV about northwest trends. That's why Brad P was so hesitant to bite on it.
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That GDPS had the classic signal of an NE NC snowstorm, elizabeth city version
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Yes they are. At this range, they all show an eastern NC system. Too early to even begin looking at specific amounts. I'm talking about the track and who is impacted.
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This is why I was very surprised that tv Mets were mentioning NW trend so much. It isn’t guaranteed in these events. This isn’t your average type of event With that said models are good consensus now .
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GFS is coming in line with euro. They are meeting in the middle .
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When wral discussed “models” they are talking euro and American. Mainly euro. They put a lot of weight on euro. .
