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PackGrad05

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  1. PackGrad05
    I think that's very fair at this point. It is only Monday. Plenty of time to make adjustments to schedules if need be.
  2. PackGrad05
    Definitely a strong CAD signature...notice the warm air to the west of the Apps. My personal forecast still favors your normal CAD areas with a rain/ice/snow mix in Central NC. We need the high to be a little stronger or the models to underestimate surface temps, which they normally do.
  3. PackGrad05
    For the Raleigh area, I prefer to see a suppressed look and lower totals at this time. Too amped and too far north spells warm-nose for our area. The only way to get a huge storm is to have some other dynamics play a role during the system to give a prolonged precip event. Too early to see those details. When will the players be able to be sampled? Wednesday/Thursday?
  4. PackGrad05
    I know that. I meant, is it simply surface temps that are causing that discrepancy?
  5. PackGrad05
    I'm in Willow Spring in southern wake and it is not sticking to my roads. Yet, 12 miles to my northwest, roads are covered. What difference does 12 miles make? Is it just surface temps?
  6. PackGrad05
    The temperatures will only drop if the precipitation is falling at a heavy enough rate for a sustained period of time. As soon as that lets up or stops, then temperatures go right back up.
  7. PackGrad05
    Really surprised how much the SREF is showing for RDU. I'm not buying it at all. I'd cut down those amounts by 75% or more.
  8. PackGrad05
    It is exciting because it is the first event of the season for a lot of us, but I agree with her statements. Fun to see snow flakes flying, but I'm not cancelling any of my saturday plans because of it.
  9. PackGrad05
    I'm beginning to wonder if Raleigh will ever get a good snowstorm anymore...always a warm nose. I also agree that this is a NW piedmont event.
  10. PackGrad05
    the 9Z sref did increase for RDU... Which is surprising given some of the latest model trends. I know the SREF can be overdone, though.
  11. PackGrad05
    The line is always through Wake County. Hilarious how that always happens.
  12. PackGrad05
    You remember what a warm nose did to our storm back in January? (that was way less marginal looking than this one) I think some wet snow is possible for the climatologically favored areas in the NW (of raleigh), but anything else is a cold rain with some flakes mixed in at times.
  13. PackGrad05
    Both the GFS and NAM bufkits are showing something frozen... though the NAM has more of a frozen mix. In addition, the SREF plumes show a little bit for RDU, but not much. For my area, southern wake, I've seen this type of scenario a million times. Cold rain while I strain my eyes to see some flakes mix in. If temperatures were colder it would be a different story. And today's 70 degrees and sunshine aren't doing any favors for soil temperatures.
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