PackGrad05
-
Posts
1,778 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by PackGrad05
-
Greg Fishel doing a live stream now and I completely agree with him. Temperatures just aren't great for Wake. Lots of rain. Wet or slushy roads at times, not icy. I'd be surprised at more than 1" in Wake.
-
I'm pretty shocked at some of the high totals I see for Wake from some of the mets that are usually conservative. I am not making a map because I really only forecast for the Wake area. If I did, I would have 1-3" of snow for Wake, 3" in the NW and 1" in SE. My reasons: Medium range models show temperatures borderline and warm in Central NC. Soundings also show a very borderline event with a warm nose at times. It is very hard to overcome the warm once it is there. Mixing and wet snow will cut down on ratios considerably.
-
Southern Wake still sees a changeover, as usual. I'm interesting to see the next NAM run. It does a much better job at the thermal profiles than GFS.
-
Meteorology is different than modelology. Models can say one thing, but looking at the actual pattern and understanding what can actually happen is why meteorologists have their job. Surface temps as well as temperatures aloft have been suspect to me for RDU the entire week. A clown map should be used to see where the heaviest snow will fall, while ignoring amounts. To me, central NC may see some snow, but will mostly be a cold rain with maybe some sleet pellets mixed in at times. I would be SHOCKED for anyone in Wake to see more than 1 inch of snow on the ground, and you may want to snap a photo of it if it happens because the rain after will wash it away.
-
interesting! Yeah I'm going to be looking at bufkit and sref plumes a lot in coming days.
-
Interesting point that I think is important to remember: The model output for snow is how much snow will fall, not necessarily stick. A lot of this snow that sticks will be washed away when we get the changeover to rain. I still think an extensive changeover to rain will occur east of 85.
-
Greg Fishel just said either a rain or snow event. He isn't predicting a lot of mixing or in between.
-
I mentioned this earlier but it got swamped in the discussion. I think one of the reasons RAH isn't sold yet is surface temperatures. The surface temps just don't look that great during the event. There will be a lot of melting and cold rain. The cold temps really don't get entrenched until Monday night/Tuesday.
-
Surface temps in Wake during the event do not look that great to me... I think we will see a lot of melting of anything that falls. With that said, the time frame between Monday-Wednesday is super cold. So anything on the ground have a hard time melting and thawing until Wednesday/Thursday.
-
Geographically, you reach a limit to how far east the cold can go due to the CAD. Unless you have an anomalously strong high, it won't really get past US-1
-
To me, the maps look better and more expansive. What don't you like? The lower totals overall? More realistic I think. There WILL be mixing with this storm. I didn't stay up so I'm just basing this on what I see this morning.
-
The strength of the CAD will be the one of the key players in this, the other being the mid-level warm air that will sneak in. This will not be correctly modeled until 24-48 hours before go time probably.
-
Thanks for clarifying!
-
I read these posts about Wake Co getting 10+ inches and central NC looking good this run... THEN the map is posted. Do y'all know where Wake is? That EPS Clown map shows most of Wake in the 1-2" category.
-
With this looking like a CAD event with no real other source of cold air, east of US-1 looks like a cold rain.. All the models seem to be trending toward that sharp US-1 cut off.
-
I don't like that map. Shows southern wake with almost zilch! haha
-
Look at that classic Wake County gradient on the weathernerds map. I agree with that map, but I could cut totals by at least 50% in all areas.
-
Some flurries possible Monday morning if the deformation band pivots through.
-
I agree. I did the same thing. For Southern Wake it could be 4-6 hours of snow/ice before changeover. I then wonder about conditions after that and refreeze/black ice potential.
-
Another Wake county special. North of 64 looks like at least a mix. South of 64 = rain. (12Z GFS)
-
True, but I could see some snow and then changeover to rain that washes it all away.
-
Someone help me remember, but isn't the NAM really good at picking up on CAD and/or warm noses? Seems that the system in January 2017 was a big bust for a lot of folks and the NAM was the first to really sniff it out. I'd start looking at the NAM closely in days to come, at least with regards to thermal profiles.
-
Latest model trends don't look good for Wake, especially southern Wake. I'm just not seeing the cold air supply that we need. Borderline = rain.
-
Remember that ensembles are much more reliable at this point....wait until euro ensembles before getting down in the dumps.
-
I'm more interested in the euro ensembles than deterministic, this far out.
