PackGrad05

UK snowfall map looks way better

That's a good trend from UK

Based on what I've seen, this was always going to be a mixed bag event for most of Wake. My mind remains unchanged.

I was getting ready to post that the EPS still showed a mighty nice hit for central NC. Much better than anything we've had in 3-4 years at this range. Now that high res models are coming into range, we should get a better look.

Reminds me a lot of this storm

Soil temperatures are fine. The high today and tomorrow will barely reach 50, if that. The low tonight is 29 and the low tomorrow night is even colder.

Everyone slow down with the pessimism. The models are coming into great agreement now that more accurate data can be fed in. This always happens. I expect the large shifts to end and expect models will be rebound slightly the other direction as they come into focus. The last system was barely 1-2 for most of Wake and was still high impact...

Does anyone remember the event within the last [emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]]] years with this exact same sweet spot? It ended up trending the same way and Raleigh was blanked. I can’t find it. .

It should also be noted that these are all snowfall maps being posted. Outside that snow is still a sleet and fzra corridor. Big impacts regardless. Also, the models are really in great agreement of a maximum over NE NC. The balloon data really helps with the model output. .

My general rule with freezing rain is to take model output and divide by 3... Even doing that, that is a still a nasty amount.

Important to look at the jet streaks and favorable right entrance left exit regions .

Agree to disagree. And I never said snow-covered roads... but roads will be a mess. and hazardous. There would likely also be early release or closures of businesses/schools

The GFS shows temperatures in the upper 20s during the afternoon on Wednesday while precip is falling. That would absolutely create hazards on roads.

Roads would be nasty, not just wet.....icy

GFS did trend south, most of Wake would be a sleet/freezing rain mix. As the RAH discussion stated, the GFS would be a moderate nuisance event with impacts during the day Wednesday and lingering impacts Thursday morning from ice on the roads.

I'm on the NWS Raleigh page trying to find previous snowfall maps from past events. I can't find them. Anyone have a link to them? I remember a similar setup to this within 5 years where it kept trending more and more NE and eventually Wake was entirely out of it.

18Z ICON looks almost identical with placement, amounts slightly lower. Still massive gradient across central NC/Wake

As depicted on the GFS, northern wake would be powdery and southern wake would be glazed

The last 3-4 runs of GFS have been very consistent. 12Z is slightly (20-30 miles) southeast of 6Z

The newest ICON is actually slower than its previous run

ICON looks good for central NC. The snow/ice line is right across Wake, per usual.

Don't look at those apps. They are largely based on one deterministic run and susceptible to wild swings and lag as new data comes in.

Which models and which runs .