PackGrad05

Definitely a strong CAD signature...notice the warm air to the west of the Apps. My personal forecast still favors your normal CAD areas with a rain/ice/snow mix in Central NC. We need the high to be a little stronger or the models to underestimate surface temps, which they normally do.

For the Raleigh area, I prefer to see a suppressed look and lower totals at this time. Too amped and too far north spells warm-nose for our area. The only way to get a huge storm is to have some other dynamics play a role during the system to give a prolonged precip event. Too early to see those details. When will the players be able to be sampled? Wednesday/Thursday?

I lost power for 4 hours near Fuquay in southern Wake. We had a couple hours of strong wind gusts. What's funny is we never lost power with Florence.. But these winds were a tad stronger in bursts and from the opposite direction.

What time is that image above valid at?

I have a good idea why. Florence was being tracked and hyped in the news almost 10 days away from landfall. There was a LOT of build up leading to the storm and people were lined up at gas stations, groceries for water, etc... Michael popped up (seemingly overnight) and many people (including the news) didn't pay much attention to it since it was in the Gulf. There wasn't the same hype and buildup until 1-2 days ago... Plus, typically a storm traveling this far really doesn't give us much impact . This is a new scenario. (for most people) Back to the meteorology: I do think the triangle will have gusty winds similar to Florence... But I'm still not sold on the gusts advertised by high res models on the backside. I definitely think we see some strong gusts as winds shift on the backside and with frontal passage, and a couple big bursts will be possible, but I don't think it will be as widespread.

Storms weaken considerably after they make landfall. However, the location and track will affect how much, including the speed. Faster speed and a track over more flat terrain will lessen the weakening for a bit.

The weakening will give some folks a false sense of security while the impacts will remain largely the same... Am I correct in saying that this has little effect on inland areas (Like RDU) since the tropical storm winds still extend so far from the center?

That's true but it also seems a lot better organized and more symmetrical than it was earlier this morning. Perhaps ERC? I think we see a new eye emerge over the next 12 hours.

Brad Panovich doing a facebook live. Just said that he believes it'll have an opportunity to strengthen over gulf stream tomorrow... Also the core seems to be intact which helps protect it from some shear, etc....

A little dry air and shear may be affecting the storm. There is still plenty of time for it to strengthen or regain better organization (however, I hope it doesn't)

The EPS solution would be great for Central NC. Anyone have an expected wind map for Central NC if the EPS verified? I'm thinking tropical storm force gusts, at best.

It is interesting (and good for people inland) that more models are showing a stall off-shore or coastal region. This would lessen wind impacts well inland if it occurred. It is a trend to keep watching. I do believe NHC will adjust the track again with the 11AM update. Less and less of the models are showing a track inland over central NC. Meanwhile, storm appears better organized than it did last night... getting back together for more strengthening perhaps.

Movement appears to have a NW vector to it. In addition, some of the latest tropical models are more NE of the official track. Possible influence of the disturbance that flared up near the gulf earlier. That could help push it more N.

I know that. I meant, is it simply surface temps that are causing that discrepancy?

I'm in Willow Spring in southern wake and it is not sticking to my roads. Yet, 12 miles to my northwest, roads are covered. What difference does 12 miles make? Is it just surface temps?

The temperatures will only drop if the precipitation is falling at a heavy enough rate for a sustained period of time. As soon as that lets up or stops, then temperatures go right back up.

Really surprised how much the SREF is showing for RDU. I'm not buying it at all. I'd cut down those amounts by 75% or more.

It is exciting because it is the first event of the season for a lot of us, but I agree with her statements. Fun to see snow flakes flying, but I'm not cancelling any of my saturday plans because of it.

I'm beginning to wonder if Raleigh will ever get a good snowstorm anymore...always a warm nose. I also agree that this is a NW piedmont event.

the 9Z sref did increase for RDU... Which is surprising given some of the latest model trends. I know the SREF can be overdone, though.

The line is always through Wake County. Hilarious how that always happens.

You remember what a warm nose did to our storm back in January? (that was way less marginal looking than this one) I think some wet snow is possible for the climatologically favored areas in the NW (of raleigh), but anything else is a cold rain with some flakes mixed in at times.

Both the GFS and NAM bufkits are showing something frozen... though the NAM has more of a frozen mix. In addition, the SREF plumes show a little bit for RDU, but not much. For my area, southern wake, I've seen this type of scenario a million times. Cold rain while I strain my eyes to see some flakes mix in. If temperatures were colder it would be a different story. And today's 70 degrees and sunshine aren't doing any favors for soil temperatures.