PackGrad05

Mike Maze on WRAL just said that they are thinking the low will form further off shore and limit the precipitation in triangle. Going for trace to one inch in our area. This is based on their future cast model.

18Z GFS running. Not looking as cold. Rainy at onset.

WPC Probabilistic Guidance also decreased across NC. Probably because of lower QPF on recent model runs and EURO run. Still bullseyes central/eastern NC but percentages went down 10-20%.

NWS RAH and local mets are still leaning toward the Euro... The fact that it still isn't showing much is concerning to me.

RAH is very conservative. WRAL has also moved away from posting "snow totals" and moved toward just showing "probabilities." They keep showing "probability of 1 inch" maps. The maps appear to be pretty much identical to euro model and wpc guidance. Which currently only shows about 20-30% chance of 1".

Greg Fishel from his Facebookl: "...... In my estimation, the upper level pattern is wrong, the surface high is in the wrong place, and most if not all of the precipitation will fall while temperatures are above freezing. For snow lovers, I do not believe this upcoming late week weather event is going to be your meteorological messiah. Might we see a few flakes? Yes, but every time I venture outside you've got that so what's the big deal??? More to come later today."

Regardless of what happens, the overnight hours on Thursday and early morning hours of Friday will be messy and nasty. Especially with temps dropping into the 20s as soon as the system departs.

The NAM warm nose is due to the fact that it is over amplifying the system. Only get a warm nose if the system is as strong as it says, which is unlikely.

High placement is not ideal for a lot of quick low level cold. We need the high to slide east.

Based on what I saw, the 6Z Euro did not look good. It was the most anemic with moisture out of the last 4 runs and all other models.

I agree with that. I think we start to see a decrease in QPF across the board with the 12Z suite. That trend will continue for a couple runs, is my prediction. NAM and GFS overamplifying, IMO.

https://twitter.com/_jwall/status/1229745451144040450?s=20 6Z Euro (and ensembles) is drier again. This is a trend that it keeps getting drier and drier. NWS and local mets leaning heavily on this model given its record.

After analyzing the overnight runs, our surface temperatures will still be an issue in central NC. Rates will overcome that but as soon as the precip lets up or stops, they will shoot back up (except for extreme overnight hours perhaps). I could see this being a sloppy/wet snow on grass and raised surfaces, melting by mid-day Friday. Better than what we have had, though. Originally, this was a win for eastern and southeastern NC... But looking at the 3K nam, northern NC should be a little more excited with less mixing and temperature issues. Local station (WRAL) still going with the possibility of a wintry mix with some accumulation bridges? Moisture and cold air limited are their 2 reasons. RAH discussion is in line with this. Temperatures remain above freezing at surface until storm departs. They even say that most of the area will dry pre-dawn limited black ice potential.

Brad Panovich is doing a live stream now and just said he does not like the placement of the high, either. He says he wants it further east and the low further west.

National Weather Service in Raleigh is saying the same thing as of 2:50PM on Monday.

Yeah the placement can definitely be overcome by the strength, which we have going for us. But the cold air transport will be slow if it has to cross the Apps. We see that time and time again with the models being too quick with the cold air.

Big issue with this system is placement of the high. It is NOT in ideal territory. Going to be hard to bleed that cold surface air over the mountains...always delayed.

Interested in seeing 18Z EPS numbers, but the cut back on the ECMWF is not a good sign. Very anemic owning to more development off the coast and not throwing much moisture inland.

Local weather stations (Raleigh area) still going with "little to no accumulation", even with recent model data. They are leaning heavily on the Euro ensembles and they showed the probability of 1" at 36%. That number likely went down to 10-15% with the 18Z data based on QPF. One thing to notice on the euro map just posted is the tight gradient of QPF in eastern NC. Shifts in that 20-50 miles will make a big difference.. But it still looks like a very light event. At this point I would forecast at most a slushy 1-2 inches on grassy surfaces for eastern NC... not much elsewhere.

WRAL is currently forecasting light wintry precip possible, mainly east of 95. Mentioned ground temps would be too warm for any impacts. The recent model run of their future cast came in while they were telling the forecast and it shows even less precip for central NC (jumped SE again)..

I think cautious is an understatement. If you read between the lines, they pretty much think it will take a miracle, especially with the limiting factors that still need to be overcome. They make it seem a lot less likely than all the other discussion on here. Based on all the recent model runs, I agree with that forecast, particularly with regards to temperatures. The low development in tandem with the high will definitely increase cold air surge into NC, but I don't think it will be enough for central NC. Eastern NC looks like the honey hole, as of now.

Can you elaborate on which region you are speaking about? I assume it is Georgia based on your tag?

I don't have access to EURO but based on GFS, temperatures look like a big factor, particularly surface temperatures based on soundings I looked at on GFS and model output. In addition, NWS RAH is forecasting a high of 46 on Thursday and 42 on Friday.

GFS is not on board with that system, as of 6Z 2/13/20

Anyone able to post what the ECMWF showed for the 2/21 system?