PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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Yep, that tornado in Willow Spring touched down a quarter mile from my house! Right on the other side of the trees! I went and looked at the damage today. Definitely tornadic looking.
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The storm that was tornado warned in JoCo moved through my area of Wake in Willow Spring. We had very heavy gusts at my home, approximately 55-60 mph at least. Strongest winds I've seen in a long time. It knocked my power out for 5 hours. When the power came on, I saw that one local station said there was a possible tornado that moved through my area (near Highway 42 and Hilltop Rd). I remember watching the velocities during this time on RadarScope and I didn't see any couplets, just straight-line. However, there is the exact same cell that moved into JoCo and prompted the tornado warning, so I guess it is possible that something extremely brief touched down or at least lowered.
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My car and home roof was destroyed in the Willow Spring hail storm back on September 1, 2017. So when that hail storm started coming this way, I was having flashbacks. Fortunately, my area only got pea sized/marble sized this time. But I saw the worst went toward the Garner/Cleveland area. That size hail for this general area twice in less than two years is pretty remarkable.
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The latest briefing from NWS Raleigh shows the timing for central NC being between 1PM and 8PM. Though, looking at the latest NAM3K and HRRR, there appears to be some convection, perhaps discrete, popping up around 9-10AM. Anyone else seeing this?
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
PackGrad05 replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
I think I'm the only 5-mile radius area in Wake County that got hardly nothing with this system. We got about 1-2 inches of slush on Sunday that was melted by dinner. Absolutely nothing with this system Monday morning. Extremely frustrating. -
The upper level low brings its own cold air, in a way. But rates will be lighter. I think the most anyone could expect is an addition 1", if that.
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I would really love to see this happen tomorrow. We only got a couple inches of slush in southern Wake and most of it was over before sunrise. Models are looking good. Upper level lows bring their own cold, so we have that going for us, too.
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I'd love to get another little burst of snow tonight/tomorrow since we didn't get a lot of snow with this round.
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Apologies, I meant Raleigh. And yea they ended up issuing WSW, but I'm still not convinced it was necessary. I could see some snow/sleet accumulations in the morning that will be washed away by a cold rain later in the day. I think a lot of children (mine included) are going to be disappointed. We need to get up early and go outside because playing in the snow in a cold rain later will be miserable.
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I was referring to Raleigh. Temperatures in Charlotte may actually stay at 32 for much longer which causes the ice accrual.
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important point. Temperatures get above freezing around lunch time tomorrow and never go below freezing Sunday night. Lots of melting to be had. Monday morning may not be all that bad on the roads. Tuesday morning could be worse with refreeze.
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Taken verbatim, southern wake gets about 4-5 hours of snow while northern wake could get another 2-3 hours... The subsequent rain will wash away any snow that accumulated.
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My official Wake county forecast: Extreme southern wake near JoCo/Harnett = 0-1" of snow and minor glazing. Central Wake = 1-2 inches of snow - minor glazing. Northern Wake = 3-5 inches, minor glazing.
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Greg Fishel went all in on probabilistic forecasting and prefers showing probabilities of certain amounts rather than committing to a specific amount on a map. I haven't seen his chat or forecast tonight, but last night he was just not that impressed.
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Southern Wake looks like it will get blanked... or less than 1". I'm just hoping the freezing rain stays away!
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I don't think they are garbage. I prefer them because they are more conservative than the outlandish global clown maps. In past events, they have been more in the ballpark than globals.
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SREF mean is 2" for RDU with MANY members lower than that... Not looking great...lots of mixing and ice I'm afraid.
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I'm more interested in short/medium range high-res models at this point than globals. I think RAH and other areas may cut down their totals for central NC, or at least keep them the same. I predict I'll be watching the coefficient correlation on my Radarscope app for the mixing line quite a bit... in southern Wake.
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I think we see WWA for central/eastern counties later today. I don't see Wake going under WSW
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That NAM snowfall map posted above only goes through 1 PM Sunday. Lots of QPF left after that time.
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Alan Huffman tweeted about the NAM. Iciest of the models and if it continues, he may have to change his call map to add more ice.
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Based on past systems, I'm giving preference to short/medium range models. I think the NAM has a much better grasp, like it did with January 2017.
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Still not a great run for Wake. I could realistically see parts of Wake county get blanked on this. I don't see anything proving otherwise based on soundings and model data.
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Greg Fishel doing a live stream now and I completely agree with him. Temperatures just aren't great for Wake. Lots of rain. Wet or slushy roads at times, not icy. I'd be surprised at more than 1" in Wake.
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I'm pretty shocked at some of the high totals I see for Wake from some of the mets that are usually conservative. I am not making a map because I really only forecast for the Wake area. If I did, I would have 1-3" of snow for Wake, 3" in the NW and 1" in SE. My reasons: Medium range models show temperatures borderline and warm in Central NC. Soundings also show a very borderline event with a warm nose at times. It is very hard to overcome the warm once it is there. Mixing and wet snow will cut down on ratios considerably.
