PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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Remember that freezing rain is also a self-limiting process. Very difficult to get the totals shown on some of those maps...but someone could see significant icing (based on current modeling). Still a long ways out.
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The difference in the FV3 from the previous run is the high pressure doesn't lock in place in time and allows the low to move more north. I also came to post that it is amazing how the line (with CAD events) is always through Wake. I'm convinced that there is a physical limit to the geographic extent that the cold air can intrude with an average CAD event and it is Wake Co. Unless it is an anomalously strong High, the CAD just doesn't intrude all the way through the county.
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January 10-12 looks cold to me. Not super cold, but something to watch.
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I just mean that you don't need sustained cold to get a nice storm. You need 1-2 days of cold combined with a good storm track. 40s-60s are the new norm around here in the winter.
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We don't need a prolonged cold spell, anyway. All we need is good timing for a southern system linking up with a shot of cold air, a la early December. As long as there are some shots of cold air, we have a chance. At least we don't have the southeast ridge dominating the discussion like 2-3 years ago.
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
PackGrad05 replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
I think I'm the only 5-mile radius area in Wake County that got hardly nothing with this system. We got about 1-2 inches of slush on Sunday that was melted by dinner. Absolutely nothing with this system Monday morning. Extremely frustrating. -
The upper level low brings its own cold air, in a way. But rates will be lighter. I think the most anyone could expect is an addition 1", if that.
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I would really love to see this happen tomorrow. We only got a couple inches of slush in southern Wake and most of it was over before sunrise. Models are looking good. Upper level lows bring their own cold, so we have that going for us, too.
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I'd love to get another little burst of snow tonight/tomorrow since we didn't get a lot of snow with this round.
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Apologies, I meant Raleigh. And yea they ended up issuing WSW, but I'm still not convinced it was necessary. I could see some snow/sleet accumulations in the morning that will be washed away by a cold rain later in the day. I think a lot of children (mine included) are going to be disappointed. We need to get up early and go outside because playing in the snow in a cold rain later will be miserable.
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I was referring to Raleigh. Temperatures in Charlotte may actually stay at 32 for much longer which causes the ice accrual.
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important point. Temperatures get above freezing around lunch time tomorrow and never go below freezing Sunday night. Lots of melting to be had. Monday morning may not be all that bad on the roads. Tuesday morning could be worse with refreeze.
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Taken verbatim, southern wake gets about 4-5 hours of snow while northern wake could get another 2-3 hours... The subsequent rain will wash away any snow that accumulated.
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My official Wake county forecast: Extreme southern wake near JoCo/Harnett = 0-1" of snow and minor glazing. Central Wake = 1-2 inches of snow - minor glazing. Northern Wake = 3-5 inches, minor glazing.
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Greg Fishel went all in on probabilistic forecasting and prefers showing probabilities of certain amounts rather than committing to a specific amount on a map. I haven't seen his chat or forecast tonight, but last night he was just not that impressed.
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Southern Wake looks like it will get blanked... or less than 1". I'm just hoping the freezing rain stays away!
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I don't think they are garbage. I prefer them because they are more conservative than the outlandish global clown maps. In past events, they have been more in the ballpark than globals.
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SREF mean is 2" for RDU with MANY members lower than that... Not looking great...lots of mixing and ice I'm afraid.
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I'm more interested in short/medium range high-res models at this point than globals. I think RAH and other areas may cut down their totals for central NC, or at least keep them the same. I predict I'll be watching the coefficient correlation on my Radarscope app for the mixing line quite a bit... in southern Wake.
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I think we see WWA for central/eastern counties later today. I don't see Wake going under WSW
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That NAM snowfall map posted above only goes through 1 PM Sunday. Lots of QPF left after that time.
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Alan Huffman tweeted about the NAM. Iciest of the models and if it continues, he may have to change his call map to add more ice.
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Based on past systems, I'm giving preference to short/medium range models. I think the NAM has a much better grasp, like it did with January 2017.
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Still not a great run for Wake. I could realistically see parts of Wake county get blanked on this. I don't see anything proving otherwise based on soundings and model data.
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Greg Fishel doing a live stream now and I completely agree with him. Temperatures just aren't great for Wake. Lots of rain. Wet or slushy roads at times, not icy. I'd be surprised at more than 1" in Wake.
