PackGrad05

Maps?

GFS/FV3/CMC all show potential for wintry mix at onset of precip for central/north-central NC.

FWIW, the WPC Probabilities show a 20-30% chance of Wake getting .01" of freezing rain. 5-10% chance of .10" of freezing rain. Not a big deal, but the chances are there. Will have to see if this increases as CAD is better forecasted.

18Z doesn't look as good as the 6Z or 12Z did.

I want to say the FV3 handled the December storm pretty well... We were tracking it for 7-10 days and it never really wavered.

For those in Southern Wake, this winter has pretty much been a blank. I had like half of inch of slush that was gone by mid-day and nothing with the second round later that day.

18Z GFS really wasn't sold on much.. FV3 on the other hand...

The 6Z GFS still shows some ice potential for central NC on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Sharp cutoff near southern wake? That map is legit!

Yeah, I'm not one that usually writes off winter early, but it isn't looking good at all. Maybe we will get surprised down the road.

RAH discussion states that another arctic front passes through tonight and will deposit the cold air for RDU. Low near 15-16 with wind chill around 10. Think we get a wind chill advisory, too?

What's the latest trends for Sunday night/Monday? I know the last EPS had 7/51 with snow for RDU.

Still a lot to watch, but this is the type of thing that I felt would happen in this type of pattern. Not a long range storm to track, but things that pop up and "surprise" us within 3-4 days.

Another thing to keep in mind are soil temps. ( I know, I know....) Highs will be in the 50s next week... nightly lows will help. I just don't like rain changing to snow situations... Ground gets all wet and saturated and snow has a hard time sticking.

At least tomorrow is something to watch. It will be interesting to see if trends increase for a little frozen drizzle for RDU area...

The temperatures for central NC look way too warm next weekend/Monday. Highs in 40s?

Euro doesn't look great for Raleigh. I'd like to see those amounts move east.

Those maps don't look great for central NC. Looks like the event favors more NW NC and mountains again.

Looks like a cold rain for southeast wake... must be accurate! haha. In all seriousness I wish we could get the cold air to stabilize and stick around so we don't have marginal events for triangle.

This is the type of pattern where a storm pops up and we only have 3-5 days to really track it. I prefer those because then I don't get hooked into it for 7-10 days.

Temperatures on latest model runs have backed off extremes... More marginal and close to freezing.

We just don't get big snows in NC with very cold air. Often times, the cold air has to be right at freezing or marginal so that the storms aren't suppressed all the way down south.

Often times, cold air masses are proceeded by a strong front and the day before is characterized by a strong southerly flow moving CCW around the low bringing in warm air.

January 20 looks like something to watch, but the temperatures are still marginal. January 19 looks like we get a stiff southerly wind bringing in warm air ahead of the cold air mass. I don't like the cold chasing moisture scenario. Seems like it worked out in our favor last year or 2 years ago. I remember Brad P saying there was noway we got snow out of that type of system, but then it evolved and we ended up getting something. Then it does look like the pattern turns super cold. We will see if it stays that way.

FIshel showed a graphic that gives central NC a 10% chance of >.25 wintry precip.