PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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haha I love the pattern and the signal, but I want it to get within 5 days and still be locked in. And as I mentioned, it moderates a few days after and another cold surge coming but as strong.
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We are still 7 days out. I expect this to moderate and be transient. Highs in the mid-upper 30s for central NC look likely....I'm not sold on anything colder this far out.
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I love how the 12Z GFS shows the coldest air of the season on Monday... then the system that rolls through is rain.
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Superbowl weekend looks interesting on GFS, but temperature suspect...especially in afternoon on Saturday... close to 40.
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A high over the plains works if it is strong enough. One of the guys who posts on twitter a lot, either jonathan or eric, posted a detailed description of this ahead of last week's event.
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Close to 70 on February 6 (saturday)
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I'm watching the short-term models for MONDAY AFTERNOON here. Shows a possible dusting or more.
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The local news (raleigh area) has been more keen on the chance of snow here on Monday. They mentioned it last night and again today.
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RAH issued a winter weather advisory for Raleigh North and West.
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HRRR shows some snow with that finger that moves through first for wake county.
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Is this another storm that ends up trending better within 48 hours like the last one? Local news was even mentioning that MONDAY may be the best chance for some light snow around central NC.
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I think this is a minimal event outside the mountains and foothills. Cold rain is better than ice/power outages.
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I don't get worked up with those temperature outlooks. It only takes 1-2 days of cold and moisture to link up to get something. We just had a decent little system for a good number of folks here. I'm sure it'll happen again, if not this weekend, then sometime in Feb.
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12Z NAM tries to bring in a period of FZRA to north central NC on Sunday... the timing saves a lot of central NC. If the precip sped up, it would be more of an issue.
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Definitely looks like a triad CAD special. Need it to trend stronger/more south for Wake to get in on the fun.
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I agree. That's what I'm seeing. And not even that strong of a signature to me.
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Amounts i'll give you, but track and placement of frozen precip was spot on as we got within closer range.
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12Z GFS still too far north with the Low for central NC to have any frozen issues. VA/NC border may have some.
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What did the individual EPS members show? as far as snow for RDU? Yesterday's, all 50 members showed something.
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12Z GFS remains unimpressed with sunday's system.
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Wake County looks to do better with tonight's system than the weekend system (as of now). I hope it just stays snow or rain.... I don't need ice issues.
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I agree with everything in the RAH discussion.. I'm going for dusting - 1" for southern wake. Grassy surfaces...melting by afternoon.
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The NAM wasn't buying the warm temperatures. It was one of the first models to show the wedge.
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I would lean toward the NAM at this point. Given thermal profiles
