PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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It's hard to keep up with all the different scenarios over the next 4 days. Would be a shame if my area got blanked (with cold rain again again again). I want access to a site with more models. What's the best site to pay for premium models? (EPS, ECMWF, etc...)
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The fly in the ointment with all this is A. appalachian mountains B. dense cold air. Overall, the cold air is very cold, but also very dense and shallow. It has a hard time making it past the Apps (unless you have a perfectly placed high), and even then, is shallow. = ice opportunities.
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I agree. Models have been struggling with the cold all along.
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Turned into a typical CAD, if taken verbatim from ECMWF. mby, southern wake, cold rain.
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The extent and strength of the CAD. I meant to say overestimated.
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I feel like this season they have underestimated so far... at least for the 2 CAD icing events we've had.
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GFS barely showed any CAD. I want to see ensembles.
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north of 540 is less than 30% of the county. Much of the county was rain for the past 2 similar events.
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Not sure how much better we can get for Wake. Need that HP to trend even stronger. Typical CAD areas favored again.
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Yes, for us (greater Raleigh area), you need a strong High or super dry air at the onset. Geographically we are at the eastern extent of most of your CAD scenarios (with freezing temps).
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With the model volatility (more than normal) this season, I am ignoring any models outside of 72-96 hours at this point.
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That's been the wrinkle all season. We haven't had "torch" temperatures, and we've been cold.. but we haven't been THAT cold. Even the last storm that produced was borderline temp problems for most of central NC. I'll take a few days of torch if we snap back to crazy cold afterward... That happened 2-3 years ago. Let's see what happens next week.
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all rain (or token mix at beginning) for Wake. Moving on to the next chance.
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The only system I'm looking at is this weekend. Anything further out is still fantasy land, especially this year with wild model swings. With that said, I'm not even sure I'd get a dusting out of the system Saturday night/sunday. Looks too warm for my area, but I'll watch trends today.
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True but the latest Para actually trended more northwest/less with the snow on Sunday. Need to see the 12Z run to see if that trend continues.
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We went from potentially record cold to a POSITIVE TEMP ANOMALY on Monday.. Can't make this up.
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Yes I see now. The map I was looking at wasn't completely updated. Thanks.
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That's odd. The tropical tidbits page doesn't show that at all. Good stuff.
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Right I see that. But 6 hours prior, temps are borderline (for Wake). The system is gone 6 hours later. So we are looking at a quick hit of less than 6 hours of snow potential. The model doesn't show any accumulations for those time periods unless something went wrong with it.
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A rain to snow changeover as cold air surges in... not really showing any accumulations.
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12Z GFS shows a 1PM temp of 43 on Monday. for Wake.
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It's more organized and wetter but wayyyyy too warm. We are looking at temps in the 40s on Monday now.
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I agree but if you want snow that sticks and is actually fun to go out and play in, you need colder temperatures. The last 2 snows I've had (last week and February 2020) were snow falling with surface temperatures around 34 and it stuck, but it was so wet and sloppy and disappeared in 4-5 hours. I know that falling snow and snow accumulation can help moderate surface temps, but highs in the mid to upper 30s isn't going to cut it.
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I had a feeling that "historic" cold for Monday was too far out. GFS still has us below normal, but nothing historic at all. High temps above freezing. I don't have access to Euro for comparison.
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Need the Euro south. Would be another cold rain or worse (ice) for Wake!
