PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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Weaker is fine for me, especially near the transition zone in central NC. I don't want a real amped storm that pumps in a lot of warm air.
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I don't even like the looks of that fantasy storm. It has southern Wake rain written all over it.
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If we get something, I don't think it will be something we track from Day 10. I think it'll pop up in the 5-6 day range and we reel it in from there. I've abandoned even looking at the Day 10 models bc they flip flop so much.
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Can you provide specifics?
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It's a shame there isn't a high in a good location on 2/1, 2/2.... Great low track.
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Hey all. I'll be in the Jersey City/NYC area this weekend visiting family. Never been up there when it snowed! Do a lot of things shut down when it snows, such as PATH train, stores, museums, etc..? Keep in mind that I'm coming from a Raleigh, NC perspective when lots of things shut down if it snows. If this is the wrong place to post this, I apologize. Thanks
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Agreed. I'd rather work with too much cold/suppressed than it be warm and wish for more cold..
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Very active period between January 17-22 that still looks interesting... Historically, the time around MLK Holiday is a great spot for us, probably because it is smack in the middle of our "coldest" portion of the year. Also interesting that the GFS still has a horrible cold bias, particularly past day 5. The ECMWF and GFS are very different with the extent of the cold past day 5.
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That's me. I'm used to it by now... There are a couple more of us on here, too. My friend in northern Wake always texts me pics of his snow and I send him back pics of my rain.
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That's true. I am looking at it through south wake lens. The gradient is ridiculous. Noway we have been anywhere close to 5 feet.
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Interesting map, but I wish it was more specific. Shows portions of Wake County at 5 feet, and I really don't think that's true... Most of Wake would be 1-3 feet over that time frame I would think.
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Just a reminder, it only takes one. It still isn't January. I think we get lucky once or twice...even if it is 60 a couple days after.
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Definitely lack of cold air supply on that run. But it is only one run of a deterministic model and we are still a week away.
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the 06GFS is a tad slower with the system, making it more of a saturday night/sunday event... It also has the bullseye further north.
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Is anyone able to share what the EPS showed? Or the individual members? I'm going to be on the OH/WV border so I'm excited about my chances of seeing snow with this one.. I want to see the euro and eps start jumping on board though. Nice looking signal on the GFS and GEFS.
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Can someone post the EPS ensemble members?
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GFS still shows "some type of storm" on the 21st... seems to trend more toward a disorganized mess. The ECMWF doesn't show anything for that timeframe really.
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FZRA is a self-limited process anyway, so those extreme amounts are not to be taken literally.. However, the signal is something to watch for. Doesn't take much FZRA to be a big problem.
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Super long range, but really nice pattern/signal around the 21st...
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Based on what? The guidance I'm looking at doesn't look too bad. No torches.
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Looks like there would be some stout ridging ahead of a really deep trough that tries to push in some arctic air. The push doesn't look as strong as it did a couple runs ago, so need to keep watching.
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Unless the pattern shifts, this may be the last winter-like thing to track for at least a week or two.
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The EURO is consistent with a little novelty snow for central NC on Tuesday evening... GFS isn't buying it right now. (as of saturday night)
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As of this morning (Thursday), it looks like both the GFS and ECMWF have lost it.
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I remember RDU went multiple days without getting above 32.. it was crazy. Couple years ago I think. The pond behind my house froze more solid than I've ever seen it! (and it rarely freezes as it is)
