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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    Exactly... Look at real data, upstream and downstream, at this point vs. every model run. Models are underestimating that cold supply to the north. Going over snow covered cold ground.
  2. PackGrad05
    18Z HRRR shows a good amount less on the southern/eastern edge vs. the 12Z. WRAL map has wake split between glaze to .10" and .10" to .25" in northern Wake. "A light glaze is possible, especially on elevated surfaces. Some slick bridges and sidewalks are possible"
  3. PackGrad05
    Brad P tweeted out that model output is garbage at this point. Gotta look upstream where the cold air is coming from. Real observations.
  4. PackGrad05
    High elevation. The cold dense air is sinking past you.
  5. PackGrad05
    The air outside just feels different than it did before the last 2 systems. It is a different kind of cold, feels really dry as well.
  6. PackGrad05
    Latest WPC guidance shows roughly 20 - 70% chance of .10" across Wake from southeast to northwest. Slightly lower for .25"
  7. PackGrad05
    So do we expect NWS to scale back their advisories/watches based on latest model output or let it ride?
  8. PackGrad05
    Wake was and always has been on the edge of this. Northwest/northern wake to face the brunt with southern Wake being spared the worst hopefully.
  9. PackGrad05
    There may be minor tweaks here and there to amounts and area coverage, but at this point it doesn't matter a whole lot. Everyone in the watch/advisory area should make preparations and just hope for the best.
  10. PackGrad05
    If it happens, it would likely be in the morning package.
  11. PackGrad05
    As others have mentioned, Brad P's latest video was definitely eye opening... And his in-house future cast is showing more ice for more of NC than other models I've seen. Mike Maze for WRAL did a video earlier too but he just mentioned the chance of something and more details later. Their future cast wasn't as robust.
  12. PackGrad05
    I think Wake will get a WWA probably tonight or tomorrow morning.
  13. PackGrad05
    Cold air source will be much better. Circulation around the high should be transporting air from cold snow-packed areas.
  14. PackGrad05
    I agree. Which is why people need to specify a location they are referring to with each post. It is complicated trying to go back and figure out which place people are talking about. For now, I would go with a FZRA event for typical climo areas. I do think WWA will go up southeast of the current WSW areas. Question is, how far?
  15. PackGrad05
    That NAM looks a little colder. Almost identical though
  16. PackGrad05
    Latest models look interesting for Wake too. I don't think it will be a bad event (as of now) for Wake, but looks to have more potential than the last rounds. May get a WWA out of it.
  17. PackGrad05
    18Z NAM looks almost identical to ECMWF, perhaps less QPF... but placement looks similar
  18. PackGrad05
    All last week most folks were saying that the signal for the mid-week storm looked stronger than the weekend systems. We've known all along there would be something to track this week. It doesn't look like it will be snow, but still have a system.
  19. PackGrad05
    About 20% of the time it is. But, as ILMRoss mentioned above, it takes a specific set of variables to occur.
  20. PackGrad05
    Definitely looks like another traditional CAD area storm. As sick as I am of rain, I'll continue taking it over that stuff. Unless this trends differently, I don't see anything (currently) to track for my area for the next 7-10 days.
  21. PackGrad05
    My portion of Wake county has 0 according to HRRR. I hope it stays that way! It's a stout wedge for sure.
  22. PackGrad05
    That map makes me sick. Poor southeast.
  23. PackGrad05
    I believe the WPC probabilistic guidance is based on computer model output... I could be wrong though.
  24. PackGrad05
    Still too much uncertainty in the data to jump to high numbers. They always start on the low end and increase the numbers over time if the data warrants it.
  25. PackGrad05
    Way too early for absolutes. Allan Huffman's latest tweets were well worded, in my opinion.
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