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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    RDU will see heavy rain and localized flooding no matter what, unless it follows the GFS route.
  2. PackGrad05
    At this point, it doesn't matter "too" much where the center of the storm tracks over the next few days. The effects will largely be the same... gusty winds in heavy bands and lots and lots of rain.
  3. PackGrad05
    6Z GFS likes March 8 for some snow!
  4. PackGrad05
    The end of the GFS wants to dump a lot of arctic air down onto the east coast.
  5. PackGrad05
    The EPS and GEFS are showing snow for portions of central NC with the PD storm. EURO OP also shows it. GFS OP is a near miss. Interestingly, the GFS OP looks better in the longer range than it has with another 2-3 opportunities.
  6. PackGrad05
    It isn't far at all. Need to watch afternoon ensemble runs.
  7. PackGrad05
    February 18/19 has EPS and GEFS support. and EPS has some "noise" on a couple other events after that...
  8. PackGrad05
    Still liking the look over next 7-14 days. I like the look of the storm for VD and for PD. Just need a little suppression and we are in business.
  9. PackGrad05
    If you are basing your predictions on a each model run of the OP GFS, then you might as well just look at your apple weather app. The overall pattern over the next two weeks is as good as we can hope for. At least 2-4 storms rolling through the south and a chance to hook up with some cold air. The EPS looks the best it has looked this morning. GEFS coming on board as well.
  10. PackGrad05
    18Z OP GFS looked nice to me. Plenty of chances to reel something in. EPS and ensembles still have noise, too.
  11. PackGrad05
    Source? Link?
  12. PackGrad05
    Pattern between 2/14 and 2/25 still looks really nice.
  13. PackGrad05
    The 18Z GFS really looked nice. 3 storms with some cold air from February 14 onward. Suppressed for now for the last two.
  14. PackGrad05
    12Z GFS still has good signal for 17-20 time period. EPS on board with noise around that time as well.
  15. PackGrad05
    We are just now getting into range of the middle of February... and even that is still in fantasy land. I like the look of the long range.
  16. PackGrad05
    February 15-17 looks decent.. Definitely has the split flow look.
  17. PackGrad05
    the 18Z GFS was so close. The high pressure is less transient and the low was suppressed just enough.
  18. PackGrad05
    Not writing off this one until Thursday/Friday. Still time for it to go the other way.
  19. PackGrad05
    Yeah roughly 10 out of 30 show something for central NC... more so at the mountains.
  20. PackGrad05
    EPS and GEFS both have the 5/6 system... EPS backed off the last 3 runs.. We will see if the trend reverses. Still there, though.
  21. PackGrad05
    We have the entire month of February and even some of March. 5 days ago, we weren't even discussing February 5-6. It is still worth watching. Is it possible we go without? Absolutely. But nothing is guaranteed. There's still plenty of time.
  22. PackGrad05
    EPS shows 20% chance of 1" of snow for Wake County. GEFS shows 3% chance. GEFS pretty much lost the storm with the 18z run.
  23. PackGrad05
    Highs in the 30s are more rare than highs in the 70s this time of year. .
  24. PackGrad05
    12Z also suppressed. 50/50 low is in a good spot, but the high over the NE is weak (only 1026mb)
  25. PackGrad05
    EPS is still on board with the system, and GEFS really jumped on board. Interestingly enough, EPS also showing some flurries/trace of snow with Feb 1 system.
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