PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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That euro map makes it look like 90% of the winter storms in NC... Wake already on the southeast edge....and the NW trend has a ways to go.
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That's one way to look at it... but really it is only "half" of prime climo time. The average snowfall for RDU for February/March is only slightly lower than the average snowfall for December/January... I'll start getting worried if we haven't seen anything (observation, not models), by Valentine's.
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The 28/29 GFS fantasy storm would be nice.
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1/19 is still a period of time to watch.. we just need a high to the north to supply some cold air.
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Big flakes in Willow Spring, southern Wake! 9:37PM
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Yeah I'd be surprised to see anything more than a random flurry. But any flakes on Christmas day is a win to me. It is also showing mainly central/eastern NC. Foothills do have the downslope component.
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The 12Z HRRR is coming in now. Still showing possibility of flurries over central on Christmas Day. Accumulations are non-consequential, dusting if anything.
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Temperatures (for NC) still look below normal to me throughout most of the next 10 days.
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Remember it will take time for that dense cold air to bleed past the mountains... That's one reason why the cold chasing moisture scenario hardly ever pans out for central NC.
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Yep. I do remember a similar scenario occurring 2-3 years ago and I remember Brad P. saying the same thing... then it ended up working out but it had to do more with another piece of energy interacting...
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how about that last frame on the 18Z GFS? SC bullseye... plenty of time for the NW trend for us NC folks haha
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The long-range GFS doesn't look bad for Christmas week. Showing some above normal temps here and there but nothing crazy... Looks like a surge of cold air toward 12/21-12/23 time period.
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Didn't y'all hit 32 a couple days ago?
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Raleigh is going to get really close to breaking the record for latest first freeze. December 3 is the record... Officially, RDU only got down to 33 earlier this week. I don't see anything promising through at least November 20, unless that changes.
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I don't consider a season very active by the number of "major storms" or whether or not they make landfall. The formation of a large number of storms is enough to make it active. Their ultimate strength and impact could be the result of poorly timed shear, dry air, or a trough that kicks it out to sea as a result of just bad timing.
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All in all, central NC fared better than I expected. Looks like the more extreme dynamics were to the south and the timing of the day also helped tremendously.
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Speaking for NC, it would be a low instability until the wee morning hours on Monday. Sunday looks to be wedged in with CAD most of the day... if that eroded a little quicker, we could destabilize more. Main threat for NC (as of now) is straight-line winds as the front moves through.
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A trace I believe.
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Based on RadarScope, the Raleigh area still has at least a couple hours of precip left.. You have to use Precipitation Depiction mode to really pick up the light snow bands.. It also appears to be backfilling a little near the triad.
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Looks like Wake only has about another 1-2 hours of snow before the back edge is here. They were predicting 11-12 for the cutoff. Am I missing something?
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They posted that around 11AM. No big deal. We ALWAYS have to overcome dry air around here before the snow gets going. That's because our cold source is usually arctic (or near arctic) air that is very dry to start with.
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The radar will fill in. You also have to remember that snow returns are always lighter.. I switch my radarscope to precipitation depiction mode usually.
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FWIW, the new run of WRAL futurecast model is now showing 2-3 inches for most of the triangle. This is in line with the NAM. Their futurecast is usually pretty conservative so I think that's a good sign.
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The 3K NAM holds on to precipitation later into Friday morning (3-4AM) while the HRRR tends to cut it off around midnight. This will play a big role in road conditions Friday morning. A stiff wind and dropping temps will dry a lot of the roads before they can freeze, but all this hinges on the duration of the lingering precip.
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Don't trust the HRRR this far out. I only use it for simulated radar during the event.
