PackGrad05

The 18Z GFS was trying to show something for Feb. 7. Low off the coast and high pressure in a somewhat favorable position, but weak 1030

If the NAM verifies with the wedge tomorrow and temperatures in northern/central NC don't get quite as high as originally predicted, that would bode better for temperatures cooling off quicker wednesday night

Matter of fact, the PARA increased snowfall over central NC from the last run.

GFS definitely trending in the right direciton.

WRAL showing a 15% chance of 1" of snow for Wake. (They just relabeled the map and it is Euro Ensemble output)

The 0Z NAM was a decent track, but not cold enough except for NE NC on the back end...

I'm waiting for the 00Z NAM to finish loading.

The high temperature forecast for Tuesday is going to be really difficult for RDU... Weak CAD signature showing up on NAM... could be a huge temp difference across the area.

Yep, much better L placement for central NC. The weenie in me doesn't want to let it go even though it looks like rain for us.

What did EPS look like?

Still don't think it is quite *over* for Wake. UKMET showed trace - 1 inch for wake. GFS Para showed 1-2". Almost 1/2 of the EPS ensembles showed something. I want to see 12Z ECMWF and EPS

Yes it is a good bit more south than standard GFS.. Gives Wake 1-2" across the board.

12Z GFS is still a no go except extreme NE NC toward the end.. Even a lot of virginia is all rain.

@_jwall on twitter posted the EPS 6Z ensembles. Roughly 20-22 out of 50 (based on estimation of geography) showed snow/mix for Wake County Thursday morning.

12Z NAM showing a heck of a temperature gradient over central NC on Tuesday with a weak CAD signature. 70s sandhills/south and 40s/50s to the north.

Meanwhile, I'm interested in seeing what the NAM shows. It will begin coming into range today. Temperature wise, showing a weak CAD for Tuesday that could end up keeping those really warm temps away.

I still think it's a little premature to rule Wake County out.. all the globals showed *something* for Wake except GFS pretty much... The next two runs will be key.

Is that prediction based on the 6Z suite or do you see updated info somewhere?

Trends not looking great.. I blame La Nina for not getting any major cold air pushes... Our cold air surges after a storm with the northerly flow, and then recovers back up to seasonal, which just isn't getting it done... We need a system like this to move through and set the stage and then another one to take a favorable track right on its heels. We need arctic cold already in place or temperatures/dew points cold enough for the storm to generate its own cold air with wet bulb.. Neither looks possible (for now) with this system.

Temperature are the limiting factor here... Antecedent temperatures do not look great at all. We just haven't had a strong cold push all season. *IF* this pans out for central NC, it'll be another case of flake watching with marginal temps and mostly rain.

Cue up the ground temperatures comments! But this bodes well in my book. We always have a big southerly warm surge prior to a winter storm it seems.

We are still in the timeframe where models are doing big swings back and forth. Haven't seen any consolidation trends yet.

Cold air just doesn't get here in time for folks in southern Wake (which is always a huge issue)...

Still a long way out, but southern Wake already on the edge.....we love to live dangerously.

Definitely something to watch but still a little far out.. If the signal is still there by Sunday/Monday, I'll start paying more attention. Better than nothing!