PackGrad05

12Z Nam 3K thermals are very close to sleet at onset for Wake. I do think we see a little sleet to start and then enough cool down to transition to snow. HRRR thermals are a little cooler at mid levels.

I'd be shocked to see more than 3" anywhere in Wake. Trust me, I'm pulling for it, but based on climatology and situations like this in the past, I agree with RAH's statement about the dry air this far back and the extent of the western precip shield. I'm going 1-3" across Wake, with most areas 1-2". Still a great snow!

No snow in Southern Wake (willow springs) this morning. I did see some falling around midnight but nothing accumulated. Hoping that being in the southeast part of the county pays off for once tonight!

A lull for most of the day was expected across central NC. The low doesn't really intensify until later this afternoon toward evening..

I'm not sold on anything that noticeable for Wake with tonight's first round. Cold chasing moisture and it looks like limited moisture by the time temperatures get low enough for anything appreciable. As for the main round tomorrow, it's going to be really close with how far west the main precipitation gets... It is going to be painful for someone... I'm going 1-3" across Wake.

What time is the first and second round?

Agreed. This is one of the rare times when Kuchera numbers are higher than the 10:1 numbers. SREF plumes for Raleigh are also higher than this point yesterday. I'm glad to be south of Raleigh this time.

Can someone post the last euro and eps snow maps

Kucheras look better than general snowfall map. Is this because the kuchera is showing ratios higher than 10:1?

I feel like the 00 GFS was improvement over 18Z

The GFS isn't bad at all. Still has decent QPF in central NC.

From Kat Campbell at WRAL: WHAT. A. NIGHT. Starting today at 4 PM we mentioned what was new was a slight shift east in the models. This was good news for most because it meant more snow and less ice but it would lower totals in our western counties. That trend has continued but in a more dramatic fashion this evening. The American and high resolution models shifted the low pressure far enough east to cut areas near Raleigh north and west entirely out of the winter storm on Friday (though still wintry precipitation with some accumulation Thursday evening and night). The European model and its ensembles does not do this and holds on to our original thinking. It's important that we start addressing these major changes and trends tonight but we aren't tanking snowfall to 0 yet for the following reasons: -The European model has been doing far better with this system since day 1 and the ensembles didn't budge either -This dramatic change happened on the mid-runs of models which do not feed as much data into them (no weather balloons) as the main runs...if this trend continues overnight on those then it more concerning -We will still see impactful winter weather and accumulations on Thursday night (including the Triangle) and parts of our viewing area will still see a major winter storm Friday -Models have a track record of shifting lows NW as we get closer to the events during the winter months

Well the NAM has trended west over the last 2 runs. Euro looked good. ICON looked good. This isn't over.

00 NAM map?

They also said: Wednesday 8 p.m. update: New model runs mean more could see precipitation

The NAM has support from GFS (trending drier) and Futurecast which is based on the Barron model.

What did the GFS ensembles show? Never saw those posted.

Latest high-res Futurecast from WRAL shows snow staying along and east of I-95.... Seems it is on board with other models now. WRAL watching and back pedaling.

Maze just said they are waiting to see if there is a northwest trend. He said they are waiting on new globals tonight and not putting much stock in the off-hour ones thisi afternoon.

RDU SREF plumes roughly 1-2" WRAL's Futurecast still shows a lot of QPF on Friday... Kat Campbell did just acknowledge they are shifting their map EAST later tonight after looking at new data.

WRAL first call map has wake county 3-5 inches. Mike maze said he may shift it southeast a little after looking at new data.

Latest from Mike Maze at WRAL @ 4:30PM There's growing confidence that Friday is going to be the day we are going to see our snow. Here's what think we should see throughout the day here in the Triangle. I believe most of the viewing area will see some snow with the most the east.

Just one run. The NAM is currently alone with this drastic scenario.

Greg Fishel mentioned this several times. He said that it could be an innocent frontal passage. The 2 pieces of energy don't phase enough and the trailing impulse is weaker.

The 18Z NAM doesn't look much different than 6Z to this point.