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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    That image is showing snow in central NC at 1AM on Monday morning. The timing is good and that could put down a quick dusting or so.
  2. PackGrad05
    Overall axis/focus point of the precip is the same...difference is QPF.
  3. PackGrad05
    From mike maze: Both the European and the GFS are still showing some snow on Sunday, which at this time should not stick. The timing on both shows it to be a morning event and so later in the weather should be mostly dry. Tune in at 10PM on Fox 50 to see how this evolves. @WRALWeather
  4. PackGrad05
    European ensemble shows 10% chance of Raleigh getting 1 inch.
  5. PackGrad05
    WRAL just said odds are increasing this afternoon. However warm ground temps would limit accumulations to elevated surfaces near VA border.
  6. PackGrad05
    That sounds very similar to the other system we had. The coastal low was not a player and we had to get snow from the trough swinging through.
  7. PackGrad05
    We had a lot longer period of warm weather in December around Christmas.
  8. PackGrad05
    I believe one of the main waves is still over the north pacific....so that will limit the amount of accurate data you get
  9. PackGrad05
    If the rates are good enough, it will accumulate, but turn into a slushy mess and be gone as soon as rates let up... If rates aren't good enough, it is a rain/snow mix. I'd love to see cold air trend a little better.
  10. PackGrad05
    Temperatures are iffy with this. Would be a rain/snow mix as it stands now.... Based on current models, accumulation would be tough. Several warm and SUNNY days ahead of this will limit initial accumulations and especially on roads (good thing)
  11. PackGrad05
    WRAL mentioned the evening runs showed a little more wintry weather, so something to keep an eye on... But they also mentioned that the day before would be close to 70 so it would be hard for anything to stick.
  12. PackGrad05
    Regardless, we still have days for this to trend better. Unlike the last systems which were more the beginning of the weekend, this is more of a sunday/monday event. so we are still at the 5-6 day mark.
  13. PackGrad05
    WWA currently doesn't include Wake.. But the RAH discussion states: Given the aforementioned setup... where the subfreezing temps already exist north of the Albemarle- Sanford-Franklin line... it appears that is the area that will have the best chance to see a brief period of light freezing rain before waa allows precip to change to all rain.
  14. PackGrad05
    RAH issued a hazardous weather outlook for the chance of a brief wintry mix Monday morning... However, I just looked at the HRRR, NAM 3K, and they show just rain... temperature above freezing by the time precip arrives. RGEM still shows a brief period.
  15. PackGrad05
    Maybe I’m more of an optimist, but for ab event coming Saturday night/Sunday morning, there is still a good amount of time to watch.
  16. PackGrad05
    Suppressed is good at this point. Rather it be that way than too far NW.
  17. PackGrad05
    Certainly don't want anything that will cause a bunch of issues, ie. ice. The good thing is we have several days where the temperature does not get below freezing and even reaches the 60s. That will keep road temps up quite a bit for a while at least.
  18. PackGrad05
    Yes, freezing rain accrual is a self-limiting process UNLESS you have a constant, reinforcing supply of shallow cold air... In other words around here, you need a strong and persistent CAD for the duration that doesn't erode or retreat.
  19. PackGrad05
    Thanks. Didn’t Realize the brief duration of warmup until I just checked the forecast.
  20. PackGrad05
    Explain?
  21. PackGrad05
    Antecedent temperatures will be really warm. Ground and road will warm up quick.
  22. PackGrad05
    Don’t fret too much by looking at long range. Remember the long range showed this being a monster storm for us. Things change. we still have a good amount of time. Yes it does get more difficult but February and even March have produced big ones.
  23. PackGrad05
    RAH discussion looks fine to me. I never really expected more than an inch here in southern Wake. We will see what happens.
  24. PackGrad05
    3K NAM looks decent for Wake. Nice 6-8 hour period of light snow, taken verbatim. Granted, boundary layer temps are above freezing at the onset so a lot of it melts on contact... I think an inch on the ground would be a win for Wake.
  25. PackGrad05
    Snow will likely still be falling at the end of that HRRR run. That won't represent storm totals.
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