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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    18z hrrr looks better for Wake. I think we get a good burst of snow for 1-2 hours
  2. PackGrad05
    Even the GFS ensembles still try to show Wake a little love. It could shift back south a little. The NW trends seemed extreme.
  3. PackGrad05
    Still looks like a 3-4 hour period of wet snow for Wake.
  4. PackGrad05
    Still looks decent for Wake. At least something to look at.
  5. PackGrad05
    Interesting. In year's past, I've given more credit to NAM within a shorter range.
  6. PackGrad05
    The 12Z NAM (both 32km and 12km) were not impressed... Neither was the 18Z 12km.
  7. PackGrad05
    I'm intrigued about the time period after 12/23... I think we see some favorable patterns then.
  8. PackGrad05
    While the temperature isn't warm enough for my Bermuda to take off yet, I would like a little moisture to help green it up. With that said, I've absolutely loved all the time outside my family has been able to spend...especially with no humidity and sweating to worry about.
  9. PackGrad05
    The Apps/Smokies better keep their eye on things tomorrow night!
  10. PackGrad05
    Unfortunately, yesterday was a big bust. No other way to put it. That just goes to show how complicated the science is. With that said, both NWS and local mets consistently explained ways that this could end up being less of a big deal.. However, it is tricky because you want people to be prepared in case the ingredients do come together in a Level 3/4 fashion.
  11. PackGrad05
    For those who follow Greg Fishel on facebook, he pretty much nailed it. He was never completely sold on it and then quickly identified the mesolow that formed this afternoon.
  12. PackGrad05
    I'm in southern wake near Fuquay and up to 68 with a soupy dewpoint.
  13. PackGrad05
    I'm in Southern Wake and already up to 62.
  14. PackGrad05
    For central NC, it looks like the main time to watch is between 3-8PM. HRRR has consistently shown some showers/storms around 4PM, but then fires up a more severe looking cluster of cells between 6-8PM.
  15. PackGrad05
    both RAH and local Mets have said that the warm air really wouldn’t surge up here until after 12 noon if it did. So I’ll hold off on until tonight to see if things remain stable. It’s only 9:55am
  16. PackGrad05
    Would you say that the probability of no tornados per unit area in a high risk area is the same as a tornado per unit area in the slight risk area? Areas in the high risk had tornados. A majority of the tornado reports (as of that graphic) were in the high area. What percentage of the high risk area needs to have a tornado for it not to be considered a bust? You could argue that sliver of the slight was also a bust since it had numerous warnings and a tornado report... or could you?
  17. PackGrad05
  18. PackGrad05
    Here is the specific wording from RAH this afternoon. They agree the wedge may be stubborn, but also believe the boundary will be the focus.
  19. PackGrad05
    As for central NC, RAH said earlier in their discussion they felt like the focus of the severe weather would be along US-1 (30 miles either side) due to location of the front and dynamics associated with it. They actually mentioned this location would be the worst of it potentially. This is something models would have a hard time showing in their output. With that said, they also mentioned several caveats that could decrease the activity. I hope all of them come true.
  20. PackGrad05
    latest HRRR and 3K NAM not looking too bad for central NC either. Primarily one main line of broken cells around 4-5PM. Just wondering if they aren't handling it properly?
  21. PackGrad05
    I saw a meteorologist from MS post last night that by dark, people would be calling him an idiot, and he expected most of their action to take place after dark. I can't find it now or remember who it was.
  22. PackGrad05
    Personally, I was surprised with the large moderate area for NC/SC. I knew there would be a moderate area, but I was surprised at the northern extent of it. I think this is where experience with CAD comes into play. It will truly be a question of how far north and west the CAD erodes during the day... The moderate area looks to align with your typical ice/rain border in winter weather.
  23. PackGrad05
    is TorCon their version of sig tor parameter? Or is it something different?
  24. PackGrad05
    I'm surprised they went with the enhanced for such a large area so far in advance. Seems it would've been better to go with a large slight and then increase to enhanced as needed. Unless they wanted to raise awareness early.
  25. PackGrad05
    New run of WRAL future cast model shows a less widespread event for central NC. They are hopeful trend will continue and level 3 area be trimmed back.
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