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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    I agree it ends at rain, but by that time the damage is done with potential heavy ice....
  2. PackGrad05
    WRAL'S FUTURECAST OUTPUT: Shows the LOW tracking directly over CLT. https://twitter.com/WRALweathergal/status/1481678789562220546?s=20
  3. PackGrad05
    I think that's a smart move. You can cover more roads and there is no threat of rain (small tonight) to really wash it away.
  4. PackGrad05
    So the NAM is showing no snow at all for central NC.
  5. PackGrad05
    It still looks like a major winter storm for our area, unless you are just looking for only snow....
  6. PackGrad05
    Wow. If Wake County goes from a potential for snow to temperatures in the 50s/60s, there will be a lot of confidence lost in forecasting... That's the problem with so many models/graphics/etc... being publicly available online and shared so much. Folks buy in to one model solution way too soon.
  7. PackGrad05
    Hard to keep up with the rapid pace of the thread. Which way did the GFS trend? Can someone post a comparison?
  8. PackGrad05
    Fishel still posts updates on his Facebook page! Here is his update from 2PM today:
  9. PackGrad05
    They've chosen their words carefully... They keep saying, slower, more moisture, and more "winter" impact... They have mentioned it will likely be a mix. However, they love sharing those graphics with the "probability" of certain amounts direct from the ensembles.
  10. PackGrad05
    That WRAL graphic is from the “European ensembles which is one of their exclusive products”. I’m surprised they are even showing that much. When Fishel was the chief they were much more conservative until 2-3 days out.
  11. PackGrad05
    Brad Panovich just did an Instagram Live with Jim Cantore riding on a ski lift in Lake Tahoe...what a legend haha They were talking about the storm and both Brad and Jim seemed to favor a very icy solution with someone getting lucky with the snow jackpot as it pivots around.
  12. PackGrad05
    The OP runs are definitely amped. Ensembles best to look at.
  13. PackGrad05
    We are focused on snow, but even central NC would get sleet/ice with the cold surface temps (if the wedge is as strong as forecasted).
  14. PackGrad05
    Last I saw, he was posting from Lake Tahoe!
  15. PackGrad05
    Willow Spring about 5 miles north of Angier.
  16. PackGrad05
    Love those snow maps being posted but I don't like that Wake gradient! I'm in the southern tip! Fun to have stuff to track, though.
  17. PackGrad05
    12Z GFS shows a couple close calls over the next week or so... Plenty of time to reel something in.
  18. PackGrad05
    Fantasy land is fun to look at, but I'm only going to focus within 7 days. As of now, Thursday night is the only thing within 7 days worth watching, IMO.
  19. PackGrad05
    Without looking at records, I'd wager that time period is the "snowiest" for our region. Seems like MLK weekend and days before/after are always good ones for snow chances.
  20. PackGrad05
    WRAL's future cast is showing a mix or snow flurries in NC northern counties... Wouldn't take much for it to come south. Their future cast model is based on the Baron model.
  21. PackGrad05
    What do the trends look like with this?
  22. PackGrad05
    Latest HRRR (02Z) and GFS still give wake 1-2 inches worth with the deformation band. I'll take it, even if it all melts on contact.
  23. PackGrad05
    18z 3k NAM was juicier for central NC.
  24. PackGrad05
    I agree with that. They basically are waiting for more data before a WWA.
  25. PackGrad05
    That's very surprising...especially since model consensus, including short-range hires models, show at least a 2-3 hour period of snow. I wouldn't even be surprised to see a winter weather advisory.
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