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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    We have the entire month of February and even some of March. 5 days ago, we weren't even discussing February 5-6. It is still worth watching. Is it possible we go without? Absolutely. But nothing is guaranteed. There's still plenty of time.
  2. PackGrad05
    EPS shows 20% chance of 1" of snow for Wake County. GEFS shows 3% chance. GEFS pretty much lost the storm with the 18z run.
  3. PackGrad05
    Highs in the 30s are more rare than highs in the 70s this time of year. .
  4. PackGrad05
    12Z also suppressed. 50/50 low is in a good spot, but the high over the NE is weak (only 1026mb)
  5. PackGrad05
    EPS is still on board with the system, and GEFS really jumped on board. Interestingly enough, EPS also showing some flurries/trace of snow with Feb 1 system.
  6. PackGrad05
    12Z EPS probabilities increased slightly for Wake County... 44% chance of a trace and 26% chance of an inch, over next 10 days. The control run is a little faster than other models and has a classic NE NC signature around elizabeth city area
  7. PackGrad05
    EPS currently showing a 38% chance of trace of snow for Wake over next 14 days. 18% chance of 1 inch.
  8. PackGrad05
    EPS really likes the Feb 5-9 time period
  9. PackGrad05
    Last 2 runs of EPS also show snow around that time period... at least about 10/50 members
  10. PackGrad05
    6z GFS has three opportunities. Fun to see. May be gone by 12Z. .
  11. PackGrad05
    Worth mentioning that the 00Z EPS showed zilch for that time period. However, the 12Z actually had a few members show something... Grasping at straws, but at least something to watch...until dreams are crushed again.
  12. PackGrad05
    The EPS and other models only show 4 "warm" days out of the next two weeks. The rest of the days are pretty seasonal for this time of year. January 29/30 isn't far from something, either.
  13. PackGrad05
    I disagree with the the February hate. Over the past 30 years, RDU has averaged 2.7" of snow per January. If you take out the 1999-2000 outlier (25"), the average is much lower. Over the same 30 years, RDU has averaged 1.4" of snow per February. Not all that different in the grand scheme of things. Once we get to March, I agree that we are toast.
  14. PackGrad05
    Quiet around here. Big arctic push into the US looks likely in next 10 days... Not sure it ever really penetrates this far to the southeast though.
  15. PackGrad05
    QPF in the southeast is off the charts over the next 10 days. Unfortunately, it isn't cold enough. Average or slightly below average temperatures (except for Tuesday 7/9), but that doesn't cut it for snow.
  16. PackGrad05
    The latest EURO, GFS, and their ensembles restrict this to the mountains outside of some novelty flakes in the foothills. Really good agreement between all of them.
  17. PackGrad05
    Meanwhile both EPS and GEFS have backed off probabilities. Both showing less than 15% chance of 1" of snow for central NC. ECMWF control run shows zilch.
  18. PackGrad05
    Both GEFS and EPS currently show approximately 10-20% chance of 1" of snow for central NC over next 10 days. When you change it to a trace, it is roughly 20-30% chance.
  19. PackGrad05
    Current EPS shows 20% chance of at least 1" of snow for central NC over next 15 days.
  20. PackGrad05
    The January 1-5 timeframe is definitely worth watching. GFS has been on and off with a system for NC. EPS has some members showing something, and GEFS is starting to pick up on it also.
  21. PackGrad05
    Need a stronger high to move that further to central NC.
  22. PackGrad05
    HRRR wants to pop some convective cells after dark...primarily east of 95 but Wake and central NC should keep an eye on it also.
  23. PackGrad05
    GFS has been east of other guidance for a few runs now.
  24. PackGrad05
    Latest run of what?
  25. PackGrad05
    Central NC would be rain. The track is too far inland. Western NC would be sitting pretty. Latest HRRR shows 2-3" widespread for central NC. Also shows the deformation band pivoting through Monday morning. Winds have died down which is a good thing.
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