PackGrad05

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

There’s no two ways to spin this- serious forecast bust. Thankfully for those in ice areas

I think that is subjective...   A.  it isn't over yet. B.  There was always a range and possibility of less ice, and that was heavily communicated.

HRRR still doesn't want to bring temps above freezing in Wake

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Maybe 1/2” sleet. Very little ZR. Precip looks limited at best. RAH expects everyone to get above freezing in central NC and last batch and most remaining QPF to be all rain. Thinking ice storm cancel? NAM appears to have kicked butt. Roads are awful, sleet ice mix stuck to everything. It’s 21 so I’m not surprised 

They need to be careful with that messaging.  Even if temps get to 34 or so overnight, it won't magically make the roads fine in the morning.   

Still bone dry in southern wake. Near Fuquay.


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Mike Maze latest Facebook post saying less ice, melting sunday night...

Lots of people commenting and really taking it the wrong way (assuming it'll be nothing now)

28 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

Brad P says he’s not buying the scattered nature of precip showing up on the models. Doesn’t think they’re handling the cad/lift well. Even if precip isn’t showing up on radar, we all know how cad days are always misty/drizzle. I don’t think we are missing out on this in the cad favored regions.

This is the difference between a meteorologist and modelologist.  He knows the science and how to use the tools, but doesn't just recite the tools.  

I know that a difference of a tenth of an inch could make things worse or better, but we are really splitting hairs at this point.
There will be power outages, treacherous roads, and super cold temperatures, especially early in the week.  

Folks should prepare for the high-end amounts (which I believe they have) and just hope it underperforms.
 

Even if maze is right, really doesn’t change any impacts for Sunday or Monday. Roads will be bad. Power outages scattered.
Tuesday morning refreeze.


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HRRR is very cold for central NC and shows a long duration freezing rain event.

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Yea the ice area is likely shifting to climo regions. The wish casting mostly for Raleigh. Verbatim still an ice storm but worst of it is clearly heading to climo 

Temperatures may go slightly above freezing for a few hours, but quickly go below again after sunrise....  The high temperature may occur in the middle of the night....

1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

Stays below freezing for the entire event in Hickory, but swings from a “high” of 31 F at 4 AM on Monday morning to 17 F at 7 AM. That’s a crazy temperature swing over that period.

THIS.  Even in Raleigh, temp drops from 34 back to the upper 20s before noon.

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

All of the upstate to part of the triangle is above freezing for the last wave of precip. Wow, this might be a forecast whiff

After 12 hours of frozen precipitation.

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

GFS with a hard rain at the end to wash it all away. Much warmer.


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I know you're being hyperbolic, but that 34 degree rain will hardly wash it all away.

the GFS still shows over 12 hours of precipitation in central NC with temps below freezing.  That's a mess.

GFS has been the most consistent by far.  So it is either right or way wrong.  
Brad P even mentioned his concerns with EURO output.

00Z GFS looks similar to previous.

2 minutes ago, NCSUGrad said:

Isn't there 5 more hours of precip after 7 PM Sunday? Wouldn't that then just be rain and not freezing rain? 

Depends on if surface temps stay above freezing or dip down below.  

1 minute ago, NCSUGrad said:

RAH in their briefing mentioned the model was starting to reflect some warming. If you look at the Sunday 7 PM for the last several runs, Raleigh's modeled temp goes from 24 to 30. If that trend continues, you'd have to think ice amounts would have to be reduced. 

 

That trend has been there since last night.  The EURO began showing temperatures getting to freezing or just above freezing sunday night in Wake County.   But the temperature drops below freezing again as night progresses and monday morning approaches.

That was the first sun angle post.
Now we just need the gulf storms robbing moisture post.


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I think the HRRR looks fine.  Shows the CAD digging in and begins to show the interaction of the low with the CAD, initiating precipitation in our area.  It is in line with the other models that go out further.  

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

How often so these extreme ice scenarios that the models are showing actually happen? I thought more often than not they end up being way overdone.

This is true.  I personally cut them in half based on what I've experienced.  I think they get the "zone" right, but the amounts are overdone.

Looks like the 18Z EURO is still struggling with depicting sleet, as Brad P mentioned in his vlog.  

Onset of precipitation is yet to be finalized. HRRR should help nail that down. Some models still show early onset


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The NWS graphic with ice total posted above is from their automated site. A similar one was posted last night. Be careful with that.


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17 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Could anyone be so kind to explain a skew chart sounding for sleet vs fr rain? I guess what I’m asking is how can I look at a chart and tell if it’s showing freezing rain versus sleet for a given area?

Typically what you look for is the size of the warm nose (above freezing layer) in the mid levels.  If it is a very small warm nose with a robust lower level still below freezing, it is typically sleet.

If it is a much larger warm nose that extends close to surface, freezing rain.