PackGrad05

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on Christmas Eve. Yuck 

Not surprising at all. It’s been such a cold start to the month, knew we’d snap back the other way.
With that said, GFS always shows extreme swings in long range. Probably more like upper s.


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nothing but rain still in southern wake.  

41 in Willow Springs on my Tempest.  Latest HRRR looks better.  

Both the NAM and HRRR want to redevelop moisture across central NC around 7-10PM

28 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro isn't anything special unless you are in Va. It moved north slightly. 

True.  But looks better than last Friday's system for sure.

Seeing the classic pattern in the high-res models of mountain snow, followed by a piedmont lull, and a NE NC jackpot.

The 12Z HRRR is not much different than the 6Z when you look at total moisture and placement....

The difference with the snowfall map is due to difference in temperatures which keep most of it cold rain for the areas that are "blanked."
I'm not surprised by this because the cold air is chasing the moisture and surface temps will likely be above freezing until sunset.  So there could definitely be a mix or snow falling, but not sticking.  

12Z EURO and EPS both increased coverage/amounts for NC for Monday's small system.

GFS still leads the way with highest amounts.

The rain/snow line on the 00Z HRRR is pretty much identical to 18Z.

The main difference is that it reduced totals by half in NC.  

At least for the triangle, this has all the makings of some initial sleet/snow falling for a short period of time (if that) and then quickly going to all cold rain.  

18Z HRRR almost identical to 12Z for Wake

2 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Doesn’t need to flip until December, at the earliest. No sense wasting all the good teleconnections in November, when most of us can’t get snow anyway, despite the upper air patterns.


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Agreed.  I'll take it in late December/all of January.

Raleigh - November 25.

I don't think we hit freezing next week during that cold snap.

After looking at all the data and the runs, even though they are inconsistent, I still feel the most likely outcome is a slow approach to the SE coast and either making it inland or staying just off-shore, but then slowing down/stallings and dumping a lot of rain...
The big story is going to be the rain/flooding.

12Z Euro is slower than 00Z...   Landfall roughly the same area, but it is slower by about 6 hours....  

The last 20 minutes has absolutely ripped here in southern wake.  We've gained an inch in just 20 minutes!!!

Finally more heavy snow near Fuquay!

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Ouch…

Dusting of snow.  All sleet now and some freezing rain

We've had nothing but freezing/rain sleet in southern Wake near Fuquay for the past hour.

HRRR is dissipating the Thursday morning band...

However, it is extending the duration of precip from this first round tonight.

HRRR trends have definitely been to increase the western expanse of the precipitation and to build it back in for a slightly longer duration event.

HRRR continues to look good.  Isn't as drastic as NAM

The 01 and 02 HRRR is picking up on a really nice banding, especially southern Wake

Remember only one model is really showing that problem.  HRRR doesn't look bad at all.

PLUS, this only affects initial moisture transport for the front end thump...   Once the low spins up off the coast, moisture will easily feed back west.

Thursday morning could be better for the Triangle than Wednesday afternoon

Currently the NAM  is the only one really showing it.  and central NC still has 1-2 inches which is what most local mets are maxing out at anyway.