PackGrad05

The EPS has trended better for snow in Wake for the 13/14/15 event over the last 4 model runs.
Probabilities of snow have increased.

GFS, Euro, HRRR, NAM all pretty much agree that this is a trace - 1" event for Wake.
The biggest concern is that temperatures crash into the upper 20s right in time for the morning commute with residual moisture everywhere.

6Z EPS probabilities for RDU.  ~70% chance of a trace, ~20% chance of 1".   These aren't as high as they were yesterday but did increase slightly over the 00Z

HRRR only goes out to 7PM Wednesday night but has a little snow.  Both the NAM3K and HRRR did well with the last system.

Nam3k is a little wintry mix but mostly north of wake

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

It’s funny because this upcoming possibility was showing on models last Wednesday or Thursday, then sort of declined over the next couple of days, only to come back yesterday

Had it not been for the last storm, we would have been obsessing over this one all week.  We all kind of forgot about it haha

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That’s actually a pretty big increase from 0z right?

About the same.   00Z was 56% and 20%, respectively.

06Z EPS has 64% chance of at least a trace of snow at RDU.  18% chance of 1".

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

I doubt most Wake people will be on for some time knowing there is no shot at any kind of big make up storm this year as there is no way another one that big would happen in the same winter. I am guessing the next shot will be sometime in the 2030's. I am particularly thinking of the Fuquay-Varina folks. I considered a long term break myself but the 4 inches has me on the fence with that. 

I'm just glad it is over and we at least got enough for the kids to play in.  (and it will still be there tomorrow) 
Disappointed we didn't get more, but at least it was 2-3 inches and not 0.  Watching the radar all day was painful!

Southern wake Fuquay only a dusting.


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Southern Wake is definitely the big loser!.   We barely have a dusting down here!   at 9:07 PM

Maybe a dusting or less near Fuquay. Still in the hole! Alan tweeted we are the last place.


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1 minute ago, eyewall said:

The Raleigh Screw Zone finally collapsed! 

Not all the way yet!  Looks like we are the last hold-outs in southern wake.

Flurries near Fuquay, still no accumulation.

Still nothing near Fuquay.  Hoping it shows up soon!

2 minutes ago, Stebaney said:

I am in Knightdale and already have just over an inch. 

That's awesome.  Still nothing here near Fuquay.

Just now, SouthWake33 said:

Just to be clear…now you’re saying the gap won’t fill in. Is that right?


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the gap will fill in, but not from that particular band in eastern wake.  It will fill in more from the south.

Just now, Droessl said:

Dude. Enough with the negativity. 

I stated an objective observation based on watching the radar loop.  I can't help how you perceive it.  

That band in eastern wake will not make it across the county. It will be north of wake before it progresses that far west. Watch the loop.


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Still . near Fuquay


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I am talking about the edge of the costal currently in eastern wake. It is moving generally north and northwest. More dry air coming from Fayetteville. We are still blanked near Fuquay.


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That eastern edge will not make it all the way across wake. It is in eastern wake and not progressing any further.


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1 minute ago, senc30 said:

Well I am in Jacksonville and we already have 5.5" so I guess they got that wrong!

It isn't what fell already, it is what is still to come

I'm 80% certain those NWS snowfall maps y'all post are automated and not made by the meteorologists in the building.  I may be wrong, but they are always all over the place.

the dry slot is pivoting, but Wake is at the pivot point...so as the bottom of the pendulum swings, we stay in the same spot

For what it's worth, the most recent HRRR did prolong the end of the event another 1-3 hours for Wake...  So if we begin by 7PM, we could have over 6 hours of precipitation.

27 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Triangle folks are in literal Hell today

Any triangle folks who were paying attention over the last 24-48 hours knew it wasn't going to start until mid-afternoon at the earliest!