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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    Agreed. Snowstorms around here are usually during that short cold period that is surrounded by above normal temperatures... The problem is, we aren't able to cash in on these cold streaks when they come.
  2. PackGrad05
    12Z EURO looks much cooler.
  3. PackGrad05
    The EPS and GEFS probabilities for snow for central NC actually increased over the last run....Still low probability, but increased.
  4. PackGrad05
    December isn't over yet... Can't remember the last time we tracked a storm from 10 days out. I think something will pop up and be a "within 5 day score" if we end up getting anything. Don't need wall to wall cold... just the cold and moisture to link up at the right time.
  5. PackGrad05
    Way too early to be punting to 2025.
  6. PackGrad05
    I hit 32.0 this morning in Willow Springs according to my Tempest. Lasted about 45 minutes.
  7. PackGrad05
    I'm in a rural area in southern Wake and haven't come close to 32. 39 is the lowest I've hit so far. Has any station in Wake, or Johnston for that matter, reported freezing temps yet?
  8. PackGrad05
    1.36" of rain on Thursday in Willow Springs. Also hit my coldest temp of the month this morning (11/17) which was 39.
  9. PackGrad05
    Looking more and more likely that Raleigh breaks record for latest first freeze. November 28 since records were taken at RDU and December 3 prior to RDU. The upcoming trough gets us back to "normal" levels and then another warm-up after that.
  10. PackGrad05
    RDU looks to break the record for latest date of first freeze. Record is November 28, set in 2009. I don't see it happening before then.
  11. PackGrad05
    Over the last 50 years, the latest first freeze for RDU is November 28. I don't see anything remotely close to freezing in the next 10-15 days. If the pattern doesn't shift, we could get close to that record.
  12. PackGrad05
    Over the past 50 years, the average first freeze for RDU is October 30. However, if you restrict it to the last 15 years, the average is almost mid-November. The latest on record is November 28 which was 2009. I don't see anything promising over the next 10 days or so.
  13. PackGrad05
    Starting to look at high res models for tomorrow morning for Raleigh. Looks like a nasty line will come through during morning commute. Gotta look out for gusty winds in that band (40 or so) and potential tornadoes.
  14. PackGrad05
    Really banking on that Fujiwara from the ULL. That's the wildcard, IMO.
  15. PackGrad05
    Based on those model outputs recently posted, Raleigh may not see much of any rain at all.
  16. PackGrad05
    The GEFS ensemble mean is pretty much identical to previous runs... the members have just tightened around the mean.
  17. PackGrad05
    Those models put central NC into the right front quadrant. Heavy rain bands and potential rotating storms. .
  18. PackGrad05
    The latest RAH Discussion does a good job of explaining that the certain models (NAM included) are having feedback issues and are not being heavily considered at this time.
  19. PackGrad05
    The sun coming out has only fueled the formation of some more bands to the south heading this way.
  20. PackGrad05
    4.5" of rain in southern Wake since Wednesday morning. As of 12:30PM on Thursday 8/8
  21. PackGrad05
    The east side is definitely juicing up more and radar returns, as well as radar models, are also increasing and beefing back up.
  22. PackGrad05
    Definitely shifted back east a little. Not surprising. It is getting picked up quicker by that trough to the north which also explains the speeding up.
  23. PackGrad05
    latest HRRR still shows Wake in the 4-6" range between now and 2PM Thursday.
  24. PackGrad05
    I'm thinking it will juice back up a little once it spends some time over the water... plus the interaction with the inverted trough. Looks like heavy bands rotate through tomorrow night. I could see 4-8" easily where the heavy bands train. Precipitable water data backs this up.
  25. PackGrad05
    That's good but wish it would start speeding up Thursday instead. Most of the rain will be dumped by Friday morning. The previous 00Z run was awfully slow. This is more similar to yesterday's 12Z run (a tad faster)
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