PackGrad05

I'm in a rural area in southern Wake and haven't come close to 32. 39 is the lowest I've hit so far. Has any station in Wake, or Johnston for that matter, reported freezing temps yet?

1.36" of rain on Thursday in Willow Springs. Also hit my coldest temp of the month this morning (11/17) which was 39.

Looking more and more likely that Raleigh breaks record for latest first freeze. November 28 since records were taken at RDU and December 3 prior to RDU. The upcoming trough gets us back to "normal" levels and then another warm-up after that.

RDU looks to break the record for latest date of first freeze. Record is November 28, set in 2009. I don't see it happening before then.

Over the last 50 years, the latest first freeze for RDU is November 28. I don't see anything remotely close to freezing in the next 10-15 days. If the pattern doesn't shift, we could get close to that record.

Over the past 50 years, the average first freeze for RDU is October 30. However, if you restrict it to the last 15 years, the average is almost mid-November. The latest on record is November 28 which was 2009. I don't see anything promising over the next 10 days or so.

Starting to look at high res models for tomorrow morning for Raleigh. Looks like a nasty line will come through during morning commute. Gotta look out for gusty winds in that band (40 or so) and potential tornadoes.

Really banking on that Fujiwara from the ULL. That's the wildcard, IMO.

Based on those model outputs recently posted, Raleigh may not see much of any rain at all.

The GEFS ensemble mean is pretty much identical to previous runs... the members have just tightened around the mean.

Those models put central NC into the right front quadrant. Heavy rain bands and potential rotating storms. .

The latest RAH Discussion does a good job of explaining that the certain models (NAM included) are having feedback issues and are not being heavily considered at this time.

The sun coming out has only fueled the formation of some more bands to the south heading this way.

4.5" of rain in southern Wake since Wednesday morning. As of 12:30PM on Thursday 8/8

The east side is definitely juicing up more and radar returns, as well as radar models, are also increasing and beefing back up.