To my untrained eye the models are having a difficult time determining the location of the primary before the transfer; the ensemble means are clearly south compared to the ops. The next step is determining how much energy might phase as the GFS is chasing lp centers off the coast; the Euro less so.
As we get closer I am looking for the transfer to be closer to the VA/NC border, with the primary dying off in southern or central W.V. To me, that will signal a solid storm.