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Blizzwalker

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Everything posted by Blizzwalker

  1. Blizzwalker
    Snowing very light but steady just west of Middletown.
  2. Blizzwalker
    Cautious descriptions of a trend are always informative. Terms like "mega-torch, torch on steroids, and thermal cataclysm" not so helpful. They seem to imply a need to see extreme condtions that would disappoint others expectations...
  3. Blizzwalker
    Is she hard of hearing ?
  4. Blizzwalker
    Yeah it's about 2300 ft. I said Sullivan but it's actually Ulster co. Always looks more wintry than I expect.
  5. Blizzwalker
    2nd ice pix..
  6. Blizzwalker
    An ice picture I took on Jan 10. Went up on Sams Point near Ellenville in Sullivan Co. 0 wind chill. ( I'm always the first person to show disdain at windchill numbers thrown around in the media. OK, it was about 14, but 0 sounds better...)
  7. Blizzwalker
    Some mood (disorder) flakes near Middletown. Confusing diagnosis with December outlook, I guess...
  8. Blizzwalker
    Moon over Ashokan reservoir in Catskills last month. Something to look at while we wait for NAO, PDO, PNA, AO, EPO to favorably align...oh, I forgot the strat warming and gravity wave that might save us in February. Trying to be hopeful...
  9. Blizzwalker
    Looking on the NW thread but few comments about svr storms. Just w of Middletown have been rocked by lots of lightening and some winds past 50. Surprised I still have power. First gusts knocked my 2 mandevillas off my back deck.
  10. Blizzwalker
    I've wondered this too around Middletown, NY. We DID get reasonably well hit from convection line last nite with lots of lightening, but in watching radar intently over multiple summers, seems like there is some topographic feature that causes storms to "split" in Eastern PA as they are approaching western Orange county....looks like a decent line, then north and south (by 20 miles or so) get hit and we get an impoverished bit of rain and distant thunder. Seems it happens with non-noreaster snowstorms also. Maybe I'm just a frustrated wishcaster with too small a sample size.
  11. Blizzwalker
    Using word "tornadic" to mean "tornado like", or "pertaining to tornadoes". Perhaps I should have indicated that the protruding section of cloud in the image appeared capable of developing into a true tornado....seems like a semantic storm in a teacup...
  12. Blizzwalker
    I defer to severe WX experts...
  13. Blizzwalker
    Taken by my son around 2 PM today at airport where he works in Lagrangeville NY. Looks tornadic...
  14. Blizzwalker
    Are there microclimatological factors contributing to snow depth variation that go unaccounted for ? Sure. Are there differences in measuring techniques/instrumentation that lead to inaccuracy in snow depth measurement? Certainly. Do we have members whose self-esteem is so interwoven with snow depth that they would lie ? Unlikely....
  15. Blizzwalker
    Yes- i have also seen the larger flakes today. Was referring to all day yesterday until around midnite. All I saw was granules for many hrs-- ok, not 24, but we waited a longer time for flakes than most in the forum
  16. Blizzwalker
    Nice to get snow with actual Dendrites attached here in Middletown. Was getting tired of 24 hrs of micro-granules
  17. Blizzwalker
    Just w of Middletown -- getting a light burst of .01 mm non-dendritic granules. Not what I had hoped for but trying to appreciate it....
  18. Blizzwalker
    That nws event total map is 6 hrs old- from 4 PM. Hope next such map does not lower amounts
  19. Blizzwalker
    I was wondering more about the track of the storm as opposed to the intrusion of a warm layer. ( I know the more N track can lead to warming).
  20. Blizzwalker
    Multiple storms have recently shown a modest NW shift late in the game. Are there reasons making such a shift less likely with this storm tomorrow?
  21. Blizzwalker
    Yes, understood. But it is not just lower amounts with noaa total event map--- it is reverse gradient. Noaa had more snow NW, Nam had more snow SE
  22. Blizzwalker
    Nam has 5 inches for nw Orange co but 8 for city at 57 hrs. Noaa has 7 inches on their "event total" for nw Orange co and less as u go SE toward city. Why would that be ? Because it is Nam beyond 48 hrs ?
  23. Blizzwalker
    Substantial glaze over everything and I see trees branches and shrubs weighted down with ice. Relatively little loss of snowpack so far. Looks like at least .2 ice but just guessing. I'd say NOAA forecast was correct for up here.
  24. Blizzwalker
    Why does a storm being more amped (stronger/ further north/warmer) cause a storm soon after to be colder/ southeast ? I have heard multiple posters state that they hope the Tuesday storm is more amped so the Thursday storm will have a more southeastern ( snowier) track.
  25. Blizzwalker
    I understand there are verification scores used to compare predictive accuracy of models. I am wondering if there is data that looks at the relationship between time until storm event and the predicted placement of storm track vs the actual storm track (or placement of low pressure). So the GFS vs NAM vs EURO, etc would be compared at 8 days, 5 days, 3 days, etc in their predicted track for a given event. At each point in time, you would note the difference in mileage (20,50,100, etc) between the forecasted track and what verified as actual. Of course as the time until the event became less, you would expect less of a discrepancy...think somebody asked something similar a few weeks ago. Does anything like this exist ? I am not familiar with verification scores-- maybe that is part of the process of generating them ?
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